Trading Journal

In addition to the presentation of the draft tax reform, the main indexes were still driven by the recovery of the technology sector. Another catalyst for this rally is the approach of the end of the quarter, which is a very favorable period for stock markets.

A general improvement in sentiment was felt in this last session of the week, with major European stock indexes closing on positive territory. Banks and producers of raw materials were among the best performers, with few of the sectors ending up lower. Against the cycle were the shares of Volkswagen that were pressured by the announcement that the operating result was penalized by a charge of 2500 M. € related to the increase of provisions. On the macroeconomic front, the consumer price index reached 1.50% during September, compared to 1.60% expected and below the 2% target set by the ECB.

Several short-term technical indicators have hit the highs of the last two years, which increases the likelihood of a decline in the coming days. Financial markets do not move in straight lines, but their evolution resembles more of a series of waves. Therefore, if a short-term correction materializes in the next few days it is only a natural move after the strong gains of the last 4 weeks.

When an index reaches a new high, it usually attracts the buyer interest of several (mostly private) investors, stimulated by the coverage that this feat generates. This buyer interest manifests itself in two ways: through the direct purchase of shares and the subscription of funds. At the present stage, subscriptions are not meeting this standard. In fact, in the last two weeks it was observed the redemption of stock funds, in the amount of 10 500 M.USD.

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Several short-term technical indicators have reached the highs of the last two years. Therefore, it can not be ruled out that some European indices, such as the DAX, may be vulnerable to a short-term correction. This hypothetical correction does not invalidate the upward trend of recent weeks.

They are all over priced in my opinion. Global markets look shakey to say the least. I'm looking to short at the first sign of serious trouble

US stock markets are making consecutive records for several sessions, and in the case of the S&P500 this was the eighth bullish session, something that had not happened since 2013. This was also the case with the Nasdaq Composite, while Dow it was the seventh straight day to climb.

US markets traded with contained losses. The session was conditioned by the reaction to the publication of the employment report. The employment report provided an unclear description of the American labor market. In September, 33 thousand jobs were lost (the first fall in job creation since 2010), which was contrary to the estimate of an increase of 100 thousand jobs. This strong deviation was due to the passage of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey along the southern US coast. Despite this gloomy outlook, the unemployment rate declined and wages grew more than anticipated.

The oil sector closed down after news sources reported that Norway's Statoil said it found an area with more than 130 million barrels of oil in the North Sea. Favoring the German market was the publication, before the opening, of industrial production in the country for August, which increased by 2.60% from the estimated 0.90%.

The oil sector closed down after news sources reported that Norway's Statoil said it found an area with more than 130 million barrels of oil in the North Sea. Favoring the German market was the publication, before the opening, of industrial production in the country for August, which increased by 2.60% from the estimated 0.90%.

Suggar seems to have found some support around the 2014 low and made a double bottom at that key level and seems to be trading within a consolidation zone that goes from 15.14 down to 13.29.

Asian markets closed with gains contained but were enough for several indexes in the region to reach the highs of this decade. In Japan, the Nikkei has reached levels not reached since 1996. In this country, it was published that industrial machinery orders rose 3.40% in August, comfortably surpassing forecasts of 1.10%.

In the pre-opening, the European indexes rehearsed without major oscillations. Today's session should be influenced essentially by external factors. The first of these factors will be the publication of the results of two of the major US banks: JP Morgan and Citigroup. Another factor conditioning the trend of the European session will be the interventions of several members of Central Banks (among them Mario Draghi) at the IMF Annual Meeting, which starts at 3:00 p.m. (GMT - 01h00).

Asian markets closed higher, with China's economic indicators offsetting Wall Street's weakness. In September, Chinese exports grew 8.10%, below the estimated 8.80%. Imports increased by 18.70% compared to forecasts of 13.50%. Although these numbers have a negative impact on GDP, they do not fail to signal the dynamism of the Chinese economy. When an economy is in the process of expanding, it is normal for its domestic consumption to be robust and that this translates into a greater demand for goods manufactured outside the country.

In his address to the IMF Annual Assembly, Mario Draghi argued that neither stocks nor bonds are in a speculative bubble. However, according to the President of the ECB, there are some signs of 'exaggeration' in the real estate market of commercial spaces within the Eurozone. In fact, economic recovery, reduced interest rates, as well as the demand for assets with appealing returns have boosted the value and incomes of various trading venues in some parts of the Euro Zone. As far as financial markets are concerned, Mario Draghi's words are likely to have a greater impact on the bond market than on the stock market.

Asian markets had a relatively quiet session, ending with contained variations. Today begins the main event of the week and perhaps of the year - the Chinese Communist Party Congress. This congress is held every five years and its main objectives are to elect the party hierarchies and establish the general guidelines of the country's internal and external policies. The holding of the Chinese Communist Party Congress should not have an immediate impact on the financial markets (except for some relevant surprise) but will have profound political, economic, social and military consequences not only in the region but also in the world.

European markets closed with devaluations of less than 1%, at a time when business results remain on the agenda. The technology sector was influenced by the selling pressure seen by US companies after the news about iPhones 8 orders. SAP remained broadly unchanged. The German technology company reported lower-than-expected earnings and quarterly revenues, but still improved its forecast for total revenues in 2017. Tele2 was the top-earning operator in the telecoms business, fueled by news that the operator raised its outlook for profit for the third quarter. On the other hand, Carrefour and Pernod Ricard also registered significant increases after the two companies recently presented their results. However, Unilever penalized the respective sector (household goods and personal care), after having reported a growth for the quarterly sales of 2.60% compared to the anticipated 4%. This differential was due to climatic factors such as hurricanes in the USA and the heavy rains that hit Central Europe. Nestlé lost 0.89%, despite announcing a quarterly increase of 2.60% in sales, slightly higher than the estimated 2.50%. On negative ground was also the advertising company, Publicis, in reaction to the results below expectations.

On Friday, the US market opened up, favored by the positive expectation regarding the tax reform. In fact, the Republicans were able to approve their proposal for the public deficit for fiscal year 2018. The Dow Jones has already renewed an intraday high, boosted by the positive performance of shares of Cisco Systems, American Express and JP Morgan. Shares of PayPal, a member of the S&P500 index, rose about 5 percent after the company reported quarterly results above expectations.