Aussie Surges on China’s Trade Boom | 9th June, 2025

Trade Talks Lift Markets

On June 9, 2025, global markets are driven by optimism over US-China trade talks in London, mixed Chinese economic data, and a USD pullback (DXY at 99.00) despite strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data (139K vs. 130K expected). The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD at 0.6510) rises as China’s Trade Surplus expands to CNY743.56B, though deflation persists (CPI -0.1% YoY, PPI -3.3% YoY). EUR/USD holds at 1.1400, GBP/USD edges up to 1.3530, and USD/CAD dips to 1.3680 amid trade deal hopes. NZD/USD gains to 0.6035, supported by China’s data, while USD/JPY softens to 143.20 on Japan’s revised Q1 GDP (0% vs. -0.2% expected). WTI crude slides to $63.80, cushioned by trade optimism. Silver (XAG/USD) and gold (XAU/USD) remain steady at $34.50 and $3,355, respectively. Key catalysts include US-China trade negotiations, upcoming Chinese CPI/PPI, and Eurozone economic data, with geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns in focus.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,355, steady as USD corrects lower (DXY at 99.00) and trade talk optimism reduces safe-haven demand.

Key Drivers

US-China Trade Talks: Optimism from the London meeting reduces safe-haven flows, capping gold upside.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) dampens Fed rate-cut hopes, supporting USD and pressuring gold. Fiscal concerns (Trump’s $4T bill) sustain uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine-Russia escalation (Kharkiv attacks) and Middle East tensions support gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two cuts) and Trump’s pressure on Powell limit USD gains, aiding gold.

China’s Economy: Deflationary pressures (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%) signal weak demand, impacting gold marginally.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, above $3,324-$3,326. RSI in positive territory supports upside.

Resistance: $3,380, then $3,400 (multi-week high). A breakout could target $3,500 (April peak).

Support: $3,326-$3,324, then $3,300 and $3,286-$3,285.

Forecast: Gold may test $3,380 if geopolitical tensions escalate. Strong trade deal progress could push to $3,300; weak deal may drive $3,400.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show gold steady at $3,354-$3,392, with $3,500 possible. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.

Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, geopolitical risks.

 Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)

Current Price and Context

Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $34.50, stable as safe-haven demand balances USD correction.

Key Drivers

Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine-Russia, Middle East) support silver, offset by US-China trade optimism.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) supports USD, but fiscal concerns and rate-cut bets limit gains, aiding silver.

China’s Economy: Caixin Services PMI at 51.1 boosts industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%) caps upside.

Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut expectations and Trump’s pressure on Powell bolster non-yielding assets.

US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s budget bill and “Sell America” trend add uncertainty, supporting silver.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, in a rectangular pattern. RSI above 50 suggests upside potential.

Resistance: $34.80 (rectangle’s upper boundary), then $34.90 (seven-week high) and $35.80 (March high).

Support: $33.10 (50-day EMA), then $32.80 (rectangle’s lower boundary) and $32.50 (six-week low).

Forecast: Silver may test $34.80 if tensions persist. Strong trade deal could push to $32.80; weak deal may drive $35.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight silver’s resilience at $34.00+, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.

Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, geopolitical risks.

 Australian Dollar Forecast (AUD/USD)

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades at 0.6510, up on Monday, buoyed by China’s expanding Trade Surplus (CNY743.56B) despite deflationary pressures.

Key Drivers

China’s Economic Data: Trade Surplus grew to CNY743.56B in May (from CNY689.99B), with exports up 6.3% YoY but imports down 2.1%

YoY. CPI fell 0.1% YoY (vs. -0.2% expected), and PPI dropped 3.3% YoY, signaling deflationary pressures but supporting AUD via trade ties.

US-China Trade Talks: Scheduled London meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boosts risk sentiment, aiding AUD as a China-proxy currency.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K vs. 130K expected) supports USD, but fiscal concerns and Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two 25 bps cuts in 2025) limit gains.

RBA Policy: Dovish May minutes favor a 25 bps cut, with Sarah Hunter warning of US tariff impacts, capping AUD upside.

Market Sentiment: Improved risk tone from US-China talks supports commodity currencies like AUD.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. RSI above 50 and above 9-day EMA (0.6481) support upside momentum.

Resistance: 0.6538 (seven-month high), then 0.6680 (channel’s upper boundary) and 0.6687 (eight-month high).

Support: 0.6481 (9-day EMA), then 0.6480 (channel’s lower boundary) and 0.6408 (50-day EMA).

Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6538 if trade talks progress. Weak Chinese CPI/PPI could push to 0.6408; strong trade deal signals may drive 0.6680.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight AUD strength at 64.66 US cents, with upside if trade talks succeed. CoinCodex forecasts 0.67 by Q3 2025.

Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, US fiscal developments.

 EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD trades at 1.1400, steady as USD holds ground post-NFP and markets eye US-China trade talks.

Key Drivers

ECB Policy: ECB’s 25 bps cut to 2% and Lagarde’s signal of nearing the easing cycle end pressure EUR. Stournaras warns of US tariff risks.

US Economic Data: NFP at 139K and steady 4.2% unemployment rate reduce Fed rate-cut odds, supporting USD.

US-China Trade Talks: London meeting optimism supports USD, but deeper issues remain unresolved.

US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill and “Sell America” trend cap USD gains, aiding EUR/USD.

Geopolitical Risks: Ukraine-Russia escalation adds EUR safe-haven appeal.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral, around 1.1400. RSI near 50 reflects balanced momentum.

Resistance: 1.1450, then 1.1500 and 1.1575 (April 21 high).

Support: 1.1380 (23.6% Fibonacci), then 1.1320-1.1330 (100/200-period SMA) and 1.1260 (38.2% Fibonacci).

Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1450 if trade talks falter. Strong deal progress could push to 1.1320.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts suggest EUR/USD caution, with 1.15 possible if USD weakens. CoinCodex forecasts 1.14 average for 2025.

Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, US fiscal developments.

 GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD trades at 1.3530-1.3535, up slightly as USD softens and BoE maintains cautious stance.

Key Drivers

BoE Policy: Bailey’s gradual rate-cut approach amid trade uncertainties supports GBP.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) limits Fed rate-cut bets, supporting USD but capped by fiscal concerns.

US-China Trade Talks: Optimism supports USD, but GBP benefits from USD pullback.

US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s budget bill pressures USD, aiding GBP/USD.

Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions bolster GBP’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, above 1.3500. RSI near 60 favors buyers.

Resistance: 1.3560, then 1.3615 (February 2022 high).

Support: 1.3500, then 1.3415 and 1.3375 (50% Fibonacci).

Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3560 if trade talks stall. Strong deal could push to 1.3415.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight GBP resilience, with 1.36 possible. Long Forecast sees 1.37 by Q3 2025.

Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, US fiscal developments.

 WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude trades at $63.80, down 0.40% from a multi-week high, supported by US-China trade optimism.

Key Drivers

US-China Trade Talks: London meeting fuels demand expectations, supporting WTI.

Geopolitical Risks: Canadian wildfires, Ukraine-Russia, and Middle East tensions limit downside.

OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd raises oversupply fears, capping gains.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) signals demand resilience, but fiscal concerns cap USD strength.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, above $63.20-$63.30 breakout. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation.

Resistance: $64.00, then $65.00.

Support: $63.20-$63.30, then $60.00.

Forecast: WTI may test $64.00 if trade talks succeed. Oversupply fears could push to $60.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $65.67, with $65 possible if supply tightens. Long Forecast sees $70 by Q4 2025.

Catalysts: US-China trade talks, Chinese CPI/PPI, Eurozone GDP, OPEC+ updates.

 Wrap-up

On June 9, 2025, markets are energized by US-China trade talks in London, lifting AUD/USD (0.6510) and NZD/USD (0.6035) on China’s Trade Surplus (CNY743.56B) despite deflationary pressures. EUR/USD (1.1400) and GBP/USD (1.3530) hold steady, while USD/CAD (1.3680) dips amid US-Canada tariff relief hopes. USD/JPY (143.20) softens on Japan’s revised GDP, and WTI crude ($63.80) consolidates. Safe-haven silver ($34.50) and gold ($3,355) remain firm amid geopolitical risks and US fiscal concerns. US-China trade outcomes, Chinese CPI/PPI, and Eurozone GDP will drive trends.

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