ATFX Market Outlook 11th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 11th June 2025

Deal in Progress, Data in Focus: CPI Set to Shape Fed Expectations

Market HighlightThe S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by a strong rally in Tesla, as investors bet on a positive outcome from the ongoing China–U.S. trade negotiations. Optimism over progress in talks helped ease fears surrounding the tariff disputes that have shaken global markets throughout the year. U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively unchanged, while the dollar edged higher and hovered near the 99 level, supported by comments from U.S. officials confirming constructive talks with China.

The latest update revealed that U.S. negotiators reported smooth progress in the London-based trade discussions. Commerce Secretary Lutnick noted that the agreed trade framework and implementation plan between the U.S. and China should help resolve restrictions related to rare earth elements and magnetic materials.

Gold dipped 0.2% to $3,322.17 as easing trade tensions and a stronger dollar weighed on demand for safe-haven assets. Oil fell 0.5% to $64.98, though prices held near seven-week highs as markets awaited direction from China–U.S. trade talks.

Key Outlook

The U.S. May CPI report is due tonight. Inflation is expected to rise modestly, with the headline CPI forecast at 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) (vs. 2.3%) and 0.2% month-over-month (MoM), while the core CPI is expected to edge up to 0.3%. As one of the last key data points before next week’s Fed meeting, the report could influence rate expectations, though unless inflation surprises to the upside, the Fed is likely to stay on hold.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US Core CPI YoY MAY ***

Tomorrow

14:00 GB Trade Balance & Industrial Production APR ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:30 US PPI MAY *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1469 / 1.1501

· Support: 1.1388 / 1.1363

EUR/USD held near 1.1423 as traders awaited U.S.-China trade updates and CPI data. Eurozone sentiment improved and ECB officials struck a hawkish tone, but expectations of a potential trade deal boosted the dollar. Failure to break above 1.1501 may lead to consolidation, with key support levels at 1.1388 and 1.1363.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3545 / 1.3566

· Support: 1.3455 / 1.3433

The GBP/USD slipped below 1.3500 after the release of weak UK labor data. The pair has broken a rising trendline, with downside targets at 1.3455 and 1.3433 if the pressure persists. A break above 1.3545 is needed to revive bullish momentum. Focus shifts to U.S. CPI tonight.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 145.70 / 146.28

· Support: 144.33/143.86

The USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 144.92 after BOJ Governor Ueda hinted at a possible delay in rate hikes, which weighed on the yen. Technically, the pair has broken above a descending trendline and is holding above the 144.33 support level. If sustained, it may target resistance at 145.70 and 146.28.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 65.82/ 66.30

· Support: 63.82/ 63.43

WTI crude slipped 0.5% to $64.98 but remains near a seven-week high. Optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade deal could support global demand. Technically, price is retesting the breakout zone around $63.82–$63.43. A successful hold could lead to a move toward $65.82 and $66.30; failure may open the path toward $63.00.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3361/3374

· Support: 3306/3293

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.37/37.87

· Support: 35.92/35.31

Gold edged down 0.1% to $3,323.14 as optimism over U.S.–China trade talks curbed safe-haven demand, and a stronger dollar added pressure. Technically, Gold remains within an ascending channel; holding above $3,322 could lead to a test of $3,361 and $3,374. A break below channel support may expose the $3,306 or $3,293 levels. Focus now turns to the U.S. CPI release tonight.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43191/43414

· Support: 42618/42446

The Dow futures rose 0.25% to 42,866.87, buoyed by optimism over progress in U.S.–China trade talks. Technically, after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, the price is consolidating near $42,780. The $42,618–$42,446 zone serves as key support, and holding above it may open the path to $43,191 and $43,414.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22003/22085

· Support: 21757/21651

The NAS100 gained 0.63% to 19,714.99, driven by a 5.6% rally in Tesla and strength in Alphabet amid deeper collaboration with OpenAI. Technically, the price remains within a rising wedge, with key support at 21,757. A bounce from this zone may target 22,003 and 22,085, while a break lower could signal deeper retracement.

 BTC

· Resistance: 110825/112035

· Support: 108072/106841

Bitcoin climbed above $110,000, supported by U.S. legislative progress (CLARITY Act), corporate Bitcoin accumulation, and speculation that the Bank of Japan may restart quantitative easing (QE) this month.Technically, BTC has broken above a descending trendline and is consolidating above its support level. A retest of the $108,072–$106,841 zone could offer a bullish setup, with upside targets at $110,825 and the May high near $112,035.

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