ATFX Market Outlook 18th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 18th July 2025

Retail Sales Boost Dollar, Stocks Hit New Highs

Market HighlightU.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, indicating a modest improvement in economic activity. The data provided to the Federal Reserve offered additional justification for delaying rate cuts while assessing the inflationary impact of import tariffs. On Thursday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at new record highs as investors welcomed strong economic data and earnings, which suggested U.S. consumers remain willing to spend. The Dow gained 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.74%.

The U.S. dollar rebounded broadly on Thursday, following a volatile session on Wednesday after President Trump denied reports of plans to fire Fed Chair Powell. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.41% to 98.75. EUR/USD fell 0.45% to 1.1582, while USD/JPY rose 0.58% to 148.73.

Gold prices edged lower overnight, pressured by a stronger dollar and robust U.S. data, while investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of further clarity on tariff developments. Spot gold declined 0.23% to settle at $3,338.58 per ounce. Oil prices rose as drone attacks on Iraq’s Kurdistan oil fields entered a fourth consecutive day, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risk in the region.

Key Outlook

Later today, the U.S. will release the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July, which is expected to rise for a fourth straight month, indicating growing optimism among consumers about the economic outlook. U.S. earnings season also kicks off this week, potentially providing fresh momentum for equity markets.

Key Data and Events Today: 

07:30 JP CPI Rate YoY JUN **

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM JUN **

20:30 US Housing Starts & Building Permits JUN **

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUL ***

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: US CB Leading Index JUN, CA PPI JUN,

Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Fed Chair Powell Speech, US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wednesday: NYMEX Crude Oil August Futures Expires, API Crude Oil Stock Change, EU Consumer Confidence JUL, US Existing Home Sales JUN

Thursday: EU/GB/US Manufacturing& Services PMI Flash JUL, ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: GB Retail Sales JUN, EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JUL, US Durable Goods Orders JUN

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1682/1.1738

· Support: 1.1591/1.1545

EUR/USD fell 0.45% to 1.1582, a one-month low, pressured by strong U.S. retail sales and a rebounding dollar. Soft Eurozone inflation weighed further. Technically, the price is holding above the 1.1590 support level with the potential to test 1.1682 if it breaks out of the descending triangle.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3480/1.3529

· Support: 1.3369/1.3320

GBP/USD slipped to 1.3405 as the U.K. jobless rate rose to 4.7% and wage growth softened, supporting BoE rate cut bets. Technically, the pair rebounded from 1.3369 and is forming higher lows, with 1.3480 as key resistance. A breakout above could trigger further upside.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.78/149.18

· Support: 147.87/147.47

USD/JPY rose 0.58% to 148.73, buoyed by strong U.S. retail sales and jobless claims. Markets await progress on U.S.-Japan tariff talks ahead of the August 1 deadline. Technically, price rejected resistance at 148.78 and is showing signs of a reversal below the highlighted supply zone.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 67.43/68.25

· Support 66.11/65.45

WTI rose 1.75% to $66.97, as drone strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan oilfields spurred renewed supply concerns, offsetting bearish U.S. stockpile data. Technically, the price remains capped below the $67.43 resistance and is struggling to stay above the trendline support near $66.11. A breakdown could open the door to decline further.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3360/3374

· Support: 3326/3311

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.33/38.57

· Support: 37.79/37.55

Gold dipped 0.3% to $3,337.43/oz, weighed by stronger U.S. retail sales and a rebounding dollar. Political uncertainty persists despite Trump denying the rumors of Powell's firing. Technically, gold is held above the $3,326 support zone and is testing a descending trendline; a breakout may trigger bullish continuation toward $3,360.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44909/45322

· Support: 44070/43551

The Dow Futures climbed 0.52% to 44,484.49, led by gains in consumer and industrial stocks. Risk sentiment improved after Trump denied rumors of Powell's firing and signalled possible tariff flexibility. Technically, price bounced from trendline support and is eyeing resistance at 44,902; a break above could resume the broader bullish trend.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 23050/22608

NAS100 surged 0.74% to a record high of 20,884.27, buoyed by strong US retail sales and bullish sentiment in the tech sector, particularly among AI chipmakers. Technically, the price is pushing against the top of the ascending channel, with the next resistance level near 23,485. A breakout may trigger further momentum.

BTC

· Resistance: 121175/123280

· Support: 116347/114205

Bitcoin rose to $120,431, supported by optimism over progress in U.S. crypto legislation and reports that President Trump may allow crypto into 401(k) retirement plans. BTC is respecting a clear, ascending trendline. Price is currently testing the $121,175 resistance. A break above may confirm a bullish continuation toward $123,280.

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