Oil sinks

Expert market comment from Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team on Crude Oil Market: Oil sinks
FxPro | 1000 dagar sedan

Oil sinks

WTI oil is trading below $84, near last month's lows, having failed to experience a buying spurt following the week's inventory data.

While commercial inventories were down 5.4Mln Barrels compared to an expected 2MB decline, oil sales from the Strategic Reserve did not slow but slightly accelerated to 4.1MB last week compared to 3.6MB and 1.9MB in the prior two weeks. Commercial inventories are now 0.5% higher than in the same week a year earlier, while strategic reserves are down 35%.

Also, retail sales data released yesterday noted a 4% rise in fuel spending for October, with higher expenditure seen only from May to July at the height of the motor holiday season.

Meanwhile, US oil producers are holding production at 12.1M BPD. While they are up and updating the number of wells in operation, drilling activity is still working more to replace retiring capacity rather than ramping up production.

We should also add the OPEC+ production cuts to wonder further why the oil price is not rising. Quite the opposite, WTI closed below its 50-day average on Wednesday and is now developing a decline, testing lows from late October as part of the downtrend of the last ten days.

If we take a broader perspective, the decline since November 7 was a second failed attempt to break above $93, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the June-September decline. The new slide down to the 50-day average is another argument favouring bearish dominance.

Fundamentally oil is weak because more and more countries are moving from slowing growth to a contractionary phase. And many are predicting more of them early next year when the effects of the rate hikes that have already taken place will begin to show their full force.

Because oil is so sensitive to the economic cycle, it may continue to fall to the lows of September ($75) even if the dollar does not return to where it was in late September. If an economic recession hits most of the eurozone and the US, China, and India slow sharply, oil risks plunging as low as $50, heading towards the 161.8% level of the original slump.

 

By the FxPro Analyst Team 

Förordning: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
Oil Slumps as Supply Worries Intensify | 14th August 2025

Oil Slumps as Supply Worries Intensify | 14th August 2025

Gold climbs above $3,365 on Fed rate-cut bets, while oil slides toward $62.00 on oversupply fears. USD/JPY dips near 146.50 on BoJ–Fed policy divergence, and the PBoC’s firmer yuan fix keeps USD/CNY under pressure. AUD/USD rises to 0.6560 after strong jobs data. Traders eye US PPI and geopolitical cues for the next market move.
Moneta Markets | 3h 11minuter sedan
GBP/JPY rally falters near 200

GBP/JPY rally falters near 200

GBP/JPY stalls weekly rally near 200 level on Bessent’s BoJ criticism. Long-term range intact; more sellers waiting below 20-day SMA.
XM Group | 3h 26minuter sedan
ATFX Market Outlook 14th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 14th August 2025

Markets now view a September Fed rate cut as almost certain, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary hinting at a possible larger 50-basis-point move. U.S. equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs for a second straight day, fueled by expectations of a new monetary easing cycle. The Dow Jones rose 1.04%, the S&P 500 gained 0.32%, and the Nasdaq added 0.14%.
ATFX | 9h 50minuter sedan