The Dollar Index Balances Before Choosing This Year's Trend

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: The Dollar Index Balances Before Choosing This Year's Trend
FxPro | 637 dagar sedan

The Dollar Index has found a balance around key technical levels in what looks like a consolidation before the start of a new medium-term trend. The DXY has been holding at its 200-day moving average for the past eight days, trading near the 103 level. Just over a month ago, the dollar consolidated at this level and ended in an intensified sell-off with a 2.9% drop.

The fact that the dollar was able to turn higher and retest previous levels suggests that there was significant support on the downside that kept the DXY below 100. Approaching this level has attracted buying interest over the past year.

During the last consolidation, the downward-sloping 50-day moving average changed its status from resistance to support.

Both of these factors are bullish for the dollar and point to further growth. Previous significant consolidations were at 113 and 106, which were pivotal levels in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

At the same time, two consecutive lower annual highs point to long-term pressure. It is characteristic of the dollar to fall when the Fed is preparing to ease or is just beginning to do so in a growing economy. In this environment, domestic demand and imports are growing, and a number of smaller economies are of greater interest to investors.

The dollar's movements over the past two years fit into a triangle, with the lower boundary at 100 and the upper boundary now at 104. It is only when the dollar breaks out of this triangle that we will see evidence that the market is setting the direction of the dollar. Until then, the market may change its mind more than once.

The outcome of this story may come next week when the Fed meeting and the monthly employment report are scheduled. A decisive exit from the triangle could be the start of a multi-month move towards the breakdown, with the potential to go as high as 115 in a bullish scenario (+11%) and as low as 90 in a bearish scenario (-13%).

By the FxPro Analyst Team

FxPro
Typ: NDD
Förordning: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
Defensive Demand Lifts Metals as Oil Surges on US Sanctions | 23rd October 2025

Defensive Demand Lifts Metals as Oil Surges on US Sanctions | 23rd October 2025

Global markets traded cautiously as geopolitical tensions resurfaced. Gold eased below $4,250 but held support on risk-off sentiment, while silver climbed above $48.50 on mixed industrial and defensive demand. Oil surged past $60 after US sanctions on Russian energy firms sparked supply concerns. The Dollar steadied near 99.00 amid optimism on a US–China trade deal.
Moneta Markets | 3h 48minuter sedan
Renewed tensions keep risk appetite under wraps

Renewed tensions keep risk appetite under wraps

Sanctions and tariffs are back in the spotlight; Risk markets retreat as sentiment softens; Gold struggles to recover; oil jumps, flirts with $61 level; Dollar remains bid; yen suffering might have legs;
XM Group | 4h 36minuter sedan
The British Pound Extends Its Losses

The British Pound Extends Its Losses

The pound remains on the back foot against the US dollar, pressured by growing market conviction that the Bank of England (BoE) will sustain its accommodative monetary policy stance for longer than the US Federal Reserve.
RoboForex | 5h 45minuter sedan
Inflation in Focus as Traders Eye BoE’s Next Move | 22nd October 2025

Inflation in Focus as Traders Eye BoE’s Next Move | 22nd October 2025

Markets traded cautiously as investors awaited UK inflation data, a key driver for the Bank of England’s next move. The Pound held firm ahead of CPI, oil extended gains on improving demand, and the US Dollar stayed soft. Broader sentiment was steady as easing US–China trade tensions balanced inflation-driven uncertainty.
Moneta Markets | 1 dag sedan