ATFX Market Outlook 22nd April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 22nd April 2025

Powell Under Fire: Gold Surges to Historic High as Trump Ramps Up Pressure

Market HighlightOn Monday, President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. economy could slow unless interest rates are cut, criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This led to a sharp decline in U.S. equities, with the Dow falling 2.48%, the S&P 500 down 2.36%, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.55%. 

Investor concerns about the Fed's independence rose due to Trump's comments, contributing to the U.S. dollar hitting a three-year low at 97.923. The euro rose to 1.1535 against the dollar, its highest since November 2021. 

Gold prices surged past $3,400, with spot gold reaching an all-time high of $3,424.3 per ounce. Meanwhile, oil prices fell over 2% amid signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and worries about tariffs impacting economic growth and fuel demand.

Key Outlook

With global markets reopening, focus shifts to the Eurozone’s April Consumer Confidence Flash and the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, both anticipated to stay negative. Continued weakness in these indicators may heighten economic concerns amid tariff-related turmoil. Later, the IMF will release its World Economic Outlook, assessing the impact of trade tensions on global growth forecasts.

Key Data and Events Today:

13:30 JP Core CPI YoY Mar *** 

21:30 FOMC Member Harker Speaks *** 

22:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks *** 

22:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash APR ** 

22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index APR ** 

Tomorrow:

02:00 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks *** 

02:30 NYMEX Crude Oil May Futures Expire *** 

04:30 US Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks Change ***

08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash APR ** 

15:30 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI APR ** 

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI APR ** 

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI APR** 

17:00 EU Balance of Trade FEB ** 

18:30 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks *** 

21:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final APR ** 

22:00 US New Home Sales MAR ** 

22:30 Crude Oil Inventories ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1555 / 1.1579

· Support: 1.1442 / 1.1417

EUR/USD climbs to 1.1520 as Trump’s Fed threats weigh on the dollar. The EU’s move to ease methane rules on U.S. gas supports euro sentiment. Watch for ECB comments and EU consumer sentiment data—soft readings may pressure the euro and Germany’s GER30 index.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3459 / 1.3518

· Support: 1.3326 / 1.3266

GBP/USD climbs to 1.3370, boosted by dollar weakness following Trump’s criticism of the Fed. Key resistance is at 1.3434—a breakout could target 1.3500, while rejection may slow the rally. Softer UK CPI supports May rate cut bets; the focus remains on Fed signals and U.S.-China trade headlines.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 141.36 / 141.86

· Support: 140.36 / 139.73

USD/JPY falls to 140.50 as Trump’s renewed Fed criticism sparks risk-off flows into the yen. DXY breaks below 98.50, with USDJPY downside momentum targeting 139.60 if 140.00 fails. Watch Japan’s core CPI—an upside surprise could strengthen the yen, while weak U.S. Richmond Fed data may deepen dollar losses.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 63.88 / 64.90             

· Support: 61.57 / 60.53

Oil fell over 2% as progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks raised the prospect of Iranian crude returning to the market, while tariff-related demand fears weighed on sentiment. Brent dropped to $66.26, and WTI to $63.08. Watch U.S. data and OPEC+ developments this week for further direction.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3462 / 3486

· Support: 3380 / 3348

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.29/ 34.16

· Support: 32.61 / 31.92

Gold reached a record $3,430 as Trump criticised Powell for delaying rate cuts, raising concerns about Fed independence. The DXY fell to 97.92 on safe-haven demand. Watch Fed speeches and PMI data this week; gold may test $3,450 with support at $3,400.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 38984 / 39717

· Support: 37331/ 36610

The Dow futures tumbled over 1,000 points on Monday, losing 3% and falling below the 38,000 mark for the fourth time this month as Trump’s escalating attacks on Fed Chair Powell rattled markets. Concerns about Fed independence and stagflation have deepened. Technically, the bearish trend persists, with 36,614 as the next significant support; failure to hold could trigger further downside.

NAS100

· Resistance: 18425/ 18870

· Support: 16977 / 16539

Tech stocks pulled the Nasdaq down overnight, with Tesla declining by over 5% and Nvidia by more than 4%. The index opened below its 10-day average, reaching a one-week low. If losses continue, monitor the 16,977–16,539 zone for support below 17,000.

BTC

· Resistance: 88596/ 89758

· Support: 84664 / 83156

Trump’s threat to fire Powell raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, which resulted in the dollar falling to a three-year low and Bitcoin rising above $87,000. Increased demand for safe-haven assets has benefited cryptocurrencies. Attending Federal Reserve speeches and U.S.-China trade discussions this week is essential. Bitcoin may continue to perform well, but there are still significant risks to consider.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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