ATFX Market Outlook 28th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 28th July 2025

Markets Brace for Fed, GDP, and Trade Deals After US-EU Pact Lifts Sentiment

Market HighlightIn June, US core durable goods orders fell unexpectedly, while shipments rose slightly, signalling a slowdown in business investment for Q2. S&P Global PMI also indicated softer manufacturing activity. Nevertheless, optimism surrounding a potential US-EU trade deal boosted sentiment, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record close on Friday. The S&P 500 increased by 0.40% to 6,388.64, up 1.5% over the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1% and the Dow added 1.3%. On Sunday, the US and EU agreed on a framework trade deal with a reduced 15% tariff on most EU imports, likely to further support risk appetite.

The US dollar rebounded, supported by robust economic data suggesting the Fed may remain patient before resuming rate cuts. Progress in tariff negotiations also eased market uncertainty. The DXY increased by 0.2% to 97.663, though it still recorded a 0.85% weekly loss, its weakest in a month.

Gold prices fell on Friday, impacted by a stronger dollar and decreased demand amid signs of progress in US-EU trade talks. Spot gold dropped 1.0% to $3,335.93 per ounce. Crude oil prices also declined as traders weighed weak economic signals and rising concerns about supply.

Key Outlook

As the final week of July begins, all focus remains on US earnings season, along with a series of major macro events: the FOMC rate decision, Q2 GDP data, and the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Markets will also monitor for any new trade agreements as the US tariff deadline nears—key factors that will influence August’s price movement.

Key Data and Events Today: 

22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUL ** 

Tomorrow: 

20:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM JUN **  

22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings JUN ** 

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence JUL ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1789/1.1830

· Support: 1.1725/1.1693

EUR/USD stayed near 1.1750, supported by the ECB’s policy hold and optimism about the US-EU trade deal, aiming for about a 1% weekly gain. Technical indicators suggest bulls may defend the 1.1725 trendline support and push towards resistance at 1.1789.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3525/1.3575

· Support: 1.3411/1.3362

GBP/USD fell to 1.3434 as disappointing UK retail sales and rising layoffs increased expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. Technically, the pair is testing the ascending trendline near 1.3411; staying above this support could lead to a short-term rebound towards resistance at 1.3525.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.88/148.38

· Support: 147.06/146.66

JPY weakened last week with USD/JPY dropping 0.9% due to BOJ policy uncertainty, political changes, and low Tokyo inflation. The pair is near 147.79, testing resistance, with a possible pullback to 147.07 before advancing toward 148.38.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.12/66.78

· Support: 63.97/63.31

WTI crude hovered around $65.18, supported by improved risk sentiment from the US-EU trade deal and Houthi maritime threats. However, the price remains within a broader downtrend. Failure to break above resistance at $66.12 could lead to another move lower towards $63.97 support.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3359/3374

· Support: 3295/3279

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.50/38.74

· Support 37.48/37.24

Spot gold rebounded to $3,335 after briefly falling to $3,320, as the US-EU trade deal reduced safe-haven demand. Focus now shifts to the upcoming Fed meeting. Technically, gold has broken below the trendline and is now facing resistance at nearly $3,359. If the recovery stalls, further downside towards $3,295 support is likely.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45149/45316

· Support: 44721/44591

The Dow Futures gained by 0.47% to 44,902 as markets anticipate the Fed to keep rates steady, while Trump’s renewed pressure on Powell for rate cuts attracts attention. Technically, the index broke above consolidation and maintained the rising trendline. If it sustains support near 44,721, further gains towards the 45,314 resistance are probable.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23484/24038

· Support: 23049/22607

NAS100 rose by 0.24% to 21,108, reaching another record close, driven by strong tech earnings and optimism over the US-EU trade agreement. Technically, the index remains within an upward channel. Staying near the midline could lead to a rally towards resistance at 23,484; failure to hold could result in a correction towards around 23,049.

BTC

· Resistance: 120297/120967

· Support: 118091/117409

Bitcoin stabilised above $119K after breaking the downtrend, holding $118.5K could target $ 120.3k. The $1.35T US-EU trade deal boosted risk sentiment, with Fundstrat noting that macroeconomic relief is supporting BTC’s short-term upside. BTC climbed approximately 0.78% to $119,060.

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