EBC Markets Briefing | Bullion risks pullback on a small rate hike

Gold traded near the record high it hit last week. The precious metal has been one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, surging by about a quarter and hitting successive records.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its optimistic outlook on gold prices on Monday, citing central bank demand and the imminent interest rate cut from the Fed at its policy meeting this week.

Gold may face a minor, near-term setback in the case of a 25-bp cut this week, but the metal will subsequently rally to a record aided by rising flows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, according to the bank.

Global holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have rebounded in recent months after sinking in mid-May to the lowest since 2019, according to a Bloomberg tally. But they remain about 25% below the peak set in 2020.

China's central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a fourth straight month in August, official data showed. The central bank was the world's largest single buyer of gold in 2023.

Analysts expect to resume purchases at some point despite high prices due to political, rather than economical motivations, such as its desire to be less dependent on the greenback as a reserve asset.

Bullion lost momentum at $2,590 so buyer will hardly gain acceptance above the level in the short term. That being said, its bullish bias was evident with the price well below 50 EMA.

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