EUROZONE IN RECESSION, BUT WHY?

Eurozone in technical recession after all. The latest revisions of the GDP figure for the first quarter resulted in a 0.1% drop. That makes for a second decline in a row. These declines are so minimal that current economic circumstances are better described as broad stagnation!

Eurozone in technical recession after all.

The latest revisions of the GDP figure for the first quarter resulted in a 0.1% drop. That makes for a second decline in a row. These declines are so minimal that current economic circumstances are better described as broad stagnation!

It appears that a technical recession has indeed materialized, although the statistical offices took some time to officially declare it. The slight decline of 0.1% in both the fourth and first quarters is rather minimal, and the robust labour market makes it challenging to argue that we are currently experiencing a full-blown recessionary environment. Nevertheless, the economy's stagnation represents a clear departure from the recent post-pandemic boom.

The significant downward revision in economic figures can be primarily attributed to Germany revising down its numbers as new data became available. This fuels the notion that March witnessed remarkably feeble economic activity, thereby diminishing the likelihood of a rapid rebound in the second quarter. Furthermore, given the overall weakness reflected in May's survey data, it is probable that we can only anticipate a modest improvement following the two consecutive quarters of decline.

Overall, the Eurozone economy finds itself once again in a state of muddling through. The influence of monetary policy is becoming increasingly pronounced on economic activity, post-pandemic spending is waning, and the looming energy crisis further compounds the challenges ahead.

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Regulation: ASIC (Australia), FSCA (South Africa)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

Wednesday’s ADP report showed a surprise decline of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, marking the first contraction since March 2023 as economic uncertainty weighed on hiring. U.S. equities surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, driven by gains in tech stocks and relief following the U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement, which eased concerns over prolonged trade tensions
ATFX | 3h 32min ago
Powell keeps the door to a July cut open

Powell keeps the door to a July cut open

Dollar slides as Powell sounds more dovish than expected - Trump’s bill passes through Senate, pending final vote in House - JOLTS job openings and ISM mfg. PMI reveal some improvement - Wall Street pauses uptrend, gold rebounds
XM Group | 21h 20min ago
GBP/USD at the top of a bullish channel

GBP/USD at the top of a bullish channel

GBP/USD loses momentum near three-year high, tests the channel’s upper band. Short-term bias remains bullish, but overbought conditions are evident. Bullish outlook remains intact above 1.3450.
XM Group | 21h 51min ago
Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
Moneta Markets | 1 day ago
ATFX Market Outlook 2nd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 2nd July 2025

Fed Chairman Powell emphasised the need for more data before considering interest rate cuts, with a July cut still a possibility. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed lower due to weakness in large tech stocks, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the S&P 500 down 0.11%. In contrast, the Dow rose by 0.91% amid volatile trading and low liquidity.
ATFX | 1 day ago