EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD

The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week. The core PCE index is expected to have slid to 2.6% from 2.8% y/y. The sluggish retail sales figures hint that spending will take a hit, while the better-than-expected average hourly earnings indicate that income could be on the rise.

EURUSD is recovering some of the previous week’s losses, remaining beneath the strong 1.0720 resistance level and the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs). The 20-day SMA crossed the 200-day SMA to the downside, suggesting that a bearish structure may be on cards. Further losses may take the pair towards the six-week low of 1.0667 ahead of the 1.0647 barrier. Even lower, the five-month trough of 1.0600 may act as a turning point. The MACD and RSI edge higher in the short-term view.

Canadian CPI --> USDCAD

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Canada is also scheduled to be released on Tuesday. In recent weeks, the Bank of Canada (BoC) joined the ranks of the G10 central banks by reducing interest rates by 25 basis points. Governor Macklem indicated that if inflation continues to decline, it would be logical to anticipate additional rate cuts. The monthly CPI figure is projected to fall by 0.3% from 0.5%.

In FX markets, USDCAD is diving beneath the long-term ascending trend line with immediate support coming from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near the 1.3590 support level. A plunge beneath this level could switch the outlook to strongly bearish, meeting the 1.3455 barrier. On the flip side, a climb above the 20- and 50-day SMAs could take the pair higher again until the 1.3785 resistance. The momentum oscillators show contradicting signals, with the stochastic indicating upside pressure and the MACD losing steam.

Australian CPI --> AUDUSD

Australia's monthly CPI numbers for May will be published on Wednesday. Australia's sticky inflation has been persisting for longer than that in other major economies. In the previous meeting, RBA policymakers talked about the chance of raising rates. So, if the CPI shows that price pressures are staying the same, traders will continue to think that the RBA is more "hawkish" than other major central banks.

AUDUSD has still been developing within a downward sloping channel since mid-November with strong resistance around the 0.6710-0.6730 resistance area. In the negative scenario, a drop beneath the short-term SMAs could drive the pair towards the lower boundary of the range near 0.6555-0.6580 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6550. Even lower, the market could switch to a more negative one, hitting 0.6465. The technical oscillators show some positive signs.