-11122024742.png)
-11122024742.png)
German Business Climate: steadily grim
German Business Climate: steadily grim
The Ifo Business Climate Index from Germany was above expectations in October - slightly down from 84.4 a month earlier to 84.3. The index components’ current situation and business expectations also marginally changed. But the overall level shows that the climate remains gloomy.
The expectations index rose from 75.3 to 75.6 for the month, while the assessment of current conditions fell 0.4 points to 94.1.
Economists are watching the business expectations component most closely as its sharp rise from the lows of the previous crises (2009 and 2020) signalled the start of a recovery in the German economy.
For traders on the foreign exchange and stock markets, the substantial rise of this index signalled the start of a rally in EURUSD and euro-region equities. Thus, supported by a strongly rising index in May 2020, EURUSD began its 10% rally in the following two months, pushing sentiment sideways. The index had previously reached its low point in December 2008, but only a powerful jump in March 2009 coincided with a general reversal of the markets and a subsequent 8-month rise in the pair of around 20%.
Today's publication did not provide a meaningful signal of improvement in the German economy, so it is unlikely that the release is slightly better than expected, and traders will take the stoppage of the decline as a signal that the German economy has passed its low point.
By the FxPro Analyst Team
ATFX Market Outlook 28th August 2025
Why is EURUSD falling even though the Fed has softened its rhetoric?
France’s Political Turmoil and Trump’s Grip on the Fed Increase FX Volatility
A Tale of Two Currencies: USD Finds Footing as EUR and AUD Face Domestic Headwinds | 27th August 2025
ATFX Market Outlook 26th August 2025
US 30, EURUSD, USDJPY
Euro Rallies Against Dollar After Powell's Cautious Jackson Hole Speech
