The crypto market pulled back further into the range

Expert market comment made by senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: The crypto market pulled back further into the range
FxPro | 341 days ago

Market picture

Cryptocurrencies continued to sag, failing to support gains in the stock market, returning the crypto market cap to $2.30trn levels seen a week ago. The market formed another lower local peak, a sequence that has been in place since March. A move towards the lower end of the sloping range suggests the potential for another 20% decline. This is a pessimistic, non-mainstream scenario given Bitcoin's historically strong performance in these months post-halving and the good risk appetite in stocks and commodities.

Bitcoin was down to $63.7K on Thursday morning, once again near the 50-day moving average, which remains a tactical support line. If the decline develops, dynamics around the $63K and $61K levels, near where the 50 and 200-day moving averages are, will be important. A failure of this support will open the way to $55K, which is quite frightening.

Bitcoin ended July up 4.4% to $64,600. In terms of seasonality, August is considered one of the two worst months for BTC. Over the past 13 years, bitcoin has ended the month up only five times and down eight times. The average decline was 15.4% and the average rise was 26%.

News background

Ethereum is expected to experience greater price fluctuations than Bitcoin. QCP Capital noted that the monthly volatility premium for the asset in "long-distance" options increased from 4% to 8%.

Another recalculation saw the first cryptocurrency's mining difficulty increase by 10.5% to 90.67T. The average hashrate for the period since the previous value change was 933.84 EH/s.

Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox sent another 33,964 BTC ($2.25bn) to an unknown address and made an internal transfer of 47,229 BTC ($3.13bn). According to Arkham, Mt.Gox-related wallets still hold 80,128 BTC worth $5.32bn. The majority of Mt.Gox investors receiving payouts can be classified as hodlers. This potentially mitigates the scale of selling pressure in the coming weeks.

A forthcoming bill from Senator Cynthia Lummis would allow the US to create the first cryptocurrency reserve, The Block reported, citing a draft document.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

Regulation: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
US tariff letters boost dollar, dent risk appetite 

US tariff letters boost dollar, dent risk appetite 

Trump letters and August 1 deadline in focus; Dollar strengthens as both China and the EU avoid tariff letters; Equities are wobbly, while gold confirms lingering demand; Aussie gains as RBA surprises by keeping rates unchanged
XM Group | 14h 31min ago
EUR/USD Declines as Markets Await US Tariff Developments

EUR/USD Declines as Markets Await US Tariff Developments

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1746 on Tuesday, with the US dollar holding a slight edge before correcting. The greenback faced pressure after Donald Trump announced new tariffs on 14 countries that have yet to secure trade agreements with the US.
RoboForex | 15h 7min ago
Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

On July 8, gold slips below $3,350 as risk appetite improves. Silver holds steady near $36.90, while AUD/USD rises to 0.6855 ahead of the RBA decision. USD/JPY surges above 161.00 as BoJ tightening bets fade. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 7.1534, signaling stability. Focus now shifts to US CPI, central bank guidance, and trade progress for market direction.
Moneta Markets | 17h 41min ago
ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

U.S. President Trump signed an order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and warned of steep hikes from that date, escalating trade tensions. U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, with the Dow down 0.94%, the S&P 500 falling 0.79%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.92%. Tesla also tumbled after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new political party.
ATFX | 20h 13min ago
Markets await trade deals as Trump makes new tariff threats

Markets await trade deals as Trump makes new tariff threats

Dollar edges higher, gold slips despite confusion and renewed trade tensions. Trump delays tariff deadline to August 1, says trade deals are close. Wall Street hits record after Congress passes Big Beautiful Bill. Oil recovers from lows after OPEC+ hikes output more than expected.
XM Group | 1 day ago