WTI OIL Analysis: EIA Predicts Lower Oil Prices

Fundamental Analysis of WTI OIL

WTI OIL Key Takeaways

• Crude oil production will decline: According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the agency expects U.S. crude oil production to decline in the next 18 months as falling oil prices lead producers to reduce drilling activities.
• Supply and demand imbalance: EIA pointed out that the slowdown in global oil demand growth, coupled with production growth in OPEC+ member countries and non-OPEC countries, makes it expected that global crude oil production will exceed consumption during the forecast period, driving up global crude oil inventories and exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
• EIA forecast price: In terms of crude oil price forecast, EIA expects oil prices to continue to fall as global inventories increase. International benchmark Brent crude oil is expected to fall from $64 per barrel in May to $61 at the end of the year and average $59/barrel in 2026. WTI crude oil is expected to fall to $57/barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and average $56/barrel in 2026.

Technical Analysis of WTI OILWTI OIL Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic oscillator: The %K line (blue) has fallen from the overbought area (above 80) and crossed the %D line (red), forming a bearish death cross signal. Both lines are currently running downward in the upper and middle areas. This indicates that the upward momentum of the market has weakened in the short term, and there may be a certain demand for correction or consolidation.
• Horizontal resistance band: The red area marked in the figure (approximately $65.00 – $65.80) was an important support platform from September 2024 to February 2025. After being broken in March, it has now turned into a strong resistance area.

WTI OIL 2-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The stochastic indicator at the bottom shows that both the %K line (blue) and the %D line (red) have fallen sharply from the overbought area and have penetrated into the oversold area below 20. At present, the two lines are glued together at the bottom of the oversold area, and the %K line has a slight upward hook and tries to cross the %D line. This shows that although the short-term downward momentum is strong, it has also reached an extreme level, and the market may have a need for a technical rebound, especially when the indicator forms an effective golden cross.
• MA signal: The price has not only fallen below the 13EMA and 65EMA, but is also currently testing a potential horizontal support area on the chart (around $64.80-65.00, which was a consolidation platform from June 5 to 9). The green 200EMA (currently around $62.80-63.00) is still tilted upward, representing a longer-term important support level on the H2 level chart, and there is still some space from the current price.

WTI OIL Pivot Indicator

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 65.25,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 65.25, first target 65.65 , second target 66.20;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 65.25, first target 64.20, second target 63.80.

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