Trump sparks tariff confusion, dollar gains; Nvidia underwhelms

Trump ups tariff rhetoric, EU next in line

US President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go ahead and that tariffs are also coming for the European Union. However, there was confusion about the timing of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as Trump indicated they are due to go into effect on April 2, but a White House official later disputed this to say that the March 4 deadline still stands.

The suggestion that another extension had been granted to Canada and Mexico briefly lifted the Canadian dollar and Mexican Peso against the US dollar. But it’s possible Trump was referring to the reciprocal tariffs, which also appear to be set at 25% and are scheduled to be rolled out in April. It’s also not clear if the reciprocal duties will be applied on top of the 25% tariffs linked to border security and the fentanyl trade.

The EU won’t be able to escape Trump’s trade war salvo either, as the President talked about 25% tariffs on European automobiles and other sectors. No further specifics were provided but the EU was quick to respond, with a spokesperson saying that the bloc will “react firmly and immediately”.

Tariff headlines lift dollar, not so much gold

The US dollar rebounded from near two-month lows against a basket of currencies yesterday on the back of Trump’s latest tariff threats. It is extending its gains today, erasing some of the recent losses following the renewed bets by investors of more aggressive easing by the Fed.

Treasury yields are also recovering, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.30% from yesterday’s more than two-month low of 4.245%. Safe-haven flows and expectations of additional Fed rate cuts have been dragging yields lower for the past two weeks. Meanwhile the recent budget bill passed by the House, which did not go far enough in tackling the deficit, doesn’t appear to have worried bond traders much.

But what’s more interesting is that gold’s rally slowed just as the decline in US yields accelerated. On the one hand, there are growing concerns about a possible slowdown in the US economy and expectations of lower interest rates should be positive for gold. But the precious metal is facing some technical resistance around $2,950/oz and this has given way to a small correction.

Euro and pound hold steady in choppy waters

The euro came under slight pressure from Trump’s remarks about EU tariffs but overall stayed within its recent trading range. It was last quoted at $1.0480. The pound was trading somewhat below yesterday’s two-month high of $1.2715, ahead of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington to meet with Trump.

So far, the UK is not being individually targeted by the Trump administration in his trade war and while Ukraine will be the bigger topic of discussion, any signs that Britain will be exempt from harsh tariffs could give the pound a further edge over the euro.   

Nvidia underwhelms, but relief rally still possible 

Shares on Wall Street were mixed on Tuesday, and although futures are in positive territory today, there’s a risk they could reverse lower amid some disappointment about Nvidia’s earnings announcement, which came after the market close.

Nvidia beat both its earnings per share and revenue forecasts, as well as the guidance for the current quarter, but not by a large margin. Still, all the signs are that AI demand is holding up and some kind of a relief rally is possible in the coming sessions.

Later today, investors will be watching US durable goods orders and the weekly jobless claims, as well as several Fed speakers including Governor Bowman, while the focus tomorrow will be on the all-important PCE inflation numbers.