psaTrading Posty-Strona 3

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 09, 2017 at 08:23

In US the budget committee warned that the proposed Republican tax reform would increase the public deficit by more than 300,000 M.USD than estimated by this proposal. Accordingly, the deficit threshold approved by the Senate (1 500 000 000 M.USD) would be exceeded. Today’s session is expected to be conditioned by the behavior of oil, the presentation of the results of some retailers such as Kohl’s and Macy’s (which signals the end of the earnings season), possible developments regarding the tax reform and news related to the visit President Trump to China.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 09, 2017 at 08:23

With the economy expanding to 3% and with interest rates at low levels, many companies are tempted to expand through mergers. With funding rates at historically low levels, a merger or acquisition may be the fastest route for a company to increase its size and market share.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 08, 2017 at 07:32

In a scenario of a slowdown in the release of corporate results, some stocks renewed new highs, even though stock indexes kept fluctuating.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 07, 2017 at 08:12

The positive trend on Wall Street continued at the beginning of the week as the end of the earnings season approached. Broadcom has officially launched the takeover bid for Qualcomm, which is the largest technology operation ever, valued at 103,000 M.USD. Advanced Micro Devices was up 5.90% on news that it plans to partner with Intel to form a personal computer chip unit. Meanwhile, investors were also paying attention to President Donald Trump's statements during his visit yo Asia, concerning North Korea's nuclear missile program and foreign trade.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 05, 2017 at 07:36

Dow Jones Industrial Average is holding above the 10-week moving average that should provide a good dynamic support for next week.Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci retracement at 22,650 on a break below the previous week low at 23,201 however a break above the 2017 high at 23,435 may set in motion another bullish run to a Fibonacci extension at 24,111.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 03, 2017 at 13:53

After yesterday’s strong valuation of the DAX, we could see some profit taking by some investors of very short term, the so-called fast money.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 02, 2017 at 07:29

The recovery of the Euro Zone economy continues to gain momentum. The Euro Zone grew 2.5% in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2016, the strongest pace since the start of 2011. This result allows the euro countries to take off from the United Kingdom, as well as from the United States.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 01, 2017 at 07:25

With respect to the domestic market, the Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew 3% in the third quarter, surpassing economists’ forecasts of 2.50%. If we exclude the “inventories” effect, GDP grew by 2.30%.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Nov 01, 2017 at 07:25

One factor that has supported the European stocks, especially the more cyclical ones, has been the retreat of the Euro. Technically, the main support of the European currency is located in the 1.1470 area. However, if the Euro starts trading above 1.1660, the likelihood of a short-term recovery becomes more robust.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 29, 2017 at 08:06

The ECB’s decision fell within the expectations already outlined in the preview of this event. In summary, the ECB will:• Reduce, from January onward, the monthly purchases of 60 000 M. € to 30 000 M. €.• The asset acquisition program will run from January 2018 through September of that year.• The ECB will reinvest the repayment of the obligations that will mature into new debt issues, so the monthly amount of purchases should exceed 30 000 M. €.• Interest rates will remain at current levels even after the end of this program.In reaction to this decisio...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 27, 2017 at 09:54

Yesterday US markets had their worst performance since early September. This nicely describes the period of weak volatility markets are experiencing: the worst S&P performance since September 5 is a mere 0.47% drop. In a first view, we may be inclined to point out the poor results reported as a cause of yesterday’s retreat. In fact, companies from different sectors such as Boeing, Chiplote Mexican Grill (restaurants) and Advanced Micro Devices (technology) announced results that did not satisfy investors, leading to a fall in their respective shares which slightly cooled optimism ove...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 26, 2017 at 07:00

Asian markets closed mostly with contained gains. The only exception was the Nikkei that ended with reduced devaluations, disrupting a series of 16 consecutive positive sessions, something which never occurred before. In fact, the previous record was 14 consecutive positive sessions and had been observed in the 1960’s. A very generous fiscal policy coupled with an ultra-accommodative monetary policy has attracted several buyers to the Japanese market. At the domestic level, many private investors and pension funds have been exchanging bonds for shares, while foreign investors have once a...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 26, 2017 at 06:59

One issue that may gain greater weight in the coming sessions is the influence that the bond market may have on stock markets. Yesterday in the US, 10-year yields in the US exceeded 2.40%. Since April 10-year interest rates could not exceed 2.40%, which has served as a barrier to any rise. However, with the passage of the Senate deficit law and with the increasing likelihood that John Taylor will be named the next President of the Fed, there has been an upward pressure on yields. Most likely, it will only be after the ECB’s meeting tomorrow that it will be possible to see whether yesterd...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 24, 2017 at 06:19

In the pre-opening, the European indices did not show a definite trend. In fact, in the last week most of the European indices have fluctuated over a relatively narrow range. In the preceding weeks the possibility of a short-term correction was anticipated as several technical indicators had reached extreme levels not seen for several years. This correction did not materialize and the recent consolidation of the indexes contributed to a decline in these technical indicators. These indicators remain at high but not extreme levels. Technically, the DAX is trading between 12900 and 13100. A break...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 22, 2017 at 14:24

On Friday, the US market opened up, favored by the positive expectation regarding the tax reform. In fact, the Republicans were able to approve their proposal for the public deficit for fiscal year 2018. The Dow Jones has already renewed an intraday high, boosted by the positive performance of shares of Cisco Systems, American Express and JP Morgan. Shares of PayPal, a member of the S&P500 index, rose about 5 percent after the company reported quarterly results above expectations.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 20, 2017 at 09:07

European markets closed with devaluations of less than 1%, at a time when business results remain on the agenda. The technology sector was influenced by the selling pressure seen by US companies after the news about iPhones 8 orders. SAP remained broadly unchanged. The German technology company reported lower-than-expected earnings and quarterly revenues, but still improved its forecast for total revenues in 2017. Tele2 was the top-earning operator in the telecoms business, fueled by news that the operator raised its outlook for profit for the third quarter. On the other hand, Carrefour and Pe...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 19, 2017 at 06:41

Asian markets had a relatively quiet session, ending with contained variations. Today begins the main event of the week and perhaps of the year - the Chinese Communist Party Congress. This congress is held every five years and its main objectives are to elect the party hierarchies and establish the general guidelines of the country's internal and external policies. The holding of the Chinese Communist Party Congress should not have an immediate impact on the financial markets (except for some relevant surprise) but will have profound political, economic, social and military consequences no...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 17, 2017 at 06:28

In his address to the IMF Annual Assembly, Mario Draghi argued that neither stocks nor bonds are in a speculative bubble. However, according to the President of the ECB, there are some signs of "exaggeration" in the real estate market of commercial spaces within the Eurozone. In fact, economic recovery, reduced interest rates, as well as the demand for assets with appealing returns have boosted the value and incomes of various trading venues in some parts of the Euro Zone. As far as financial markets are concerned, Mario Draghi's words are likely to have a greater impact on the b...

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 13, 2017 at 09:27

Asian markets closed higher, with China's economic indicators offsetting Wall Street's weakness. In September, Chinese exports grew 8.10%, below the estimated 8.80%. Imports increased by 18.70% compared to forecasts of 13.50%. Although these numbers have a negative impact on GDP, they do not fail to signal the dynamism of the Chinese economy. When an economy is in the process of expanding, it is normal for its domestic consumption to be robust and that this translates into a greater demand for goods manufactured outside the country.

Trading Journal W Nowi Handlowcy Oct 12, 2017 at 14:39

In the pre-opening, the European indexes rehearsed without major oscillations. Today's session should be influenced essentially by external factors. The first of these factors will be the publication of the results of two of the major US banks: JP Morgan and Citigroup. Another factor conditioning the trend of the European session will be the interventions of several members of Central Banks (among them Mario Draghi) at the IMF Annual Meeting, which starts at 3:00 p.m. (GMT - 01h00).

EURUSD	1.07411	GBPUSD	1.2473	AUDUSD	0.65672
USDJPY	155.428	USDCAD	1.37567	USDCHF	0.90948

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