ECB set to continue the fight against inflation despite its weakening

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: ECB set to continue the fight against inflation despite its weakening
FxPro | Před 766 dny

The euro is hovering around the $1.07 level, barely recovering above that mark on Thursday morning despite a sharper-than-expected drop in inflation. 

Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed a decline in annual inflation in May to 6.1% from 7.0% in April. Economists had forecasted a smaller decrease to 6.3% y/y. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also slowed down from 5.6% to 5.3%, confirming a downward trend. 

Earlier statistics from other indicators and CPI data from the major countries suggested similar outcomes, but it is still helpful to have confirmation from the consolidated data. 

However, we would like to stress that in these critical times, the regulator’s perception of these facts is more important than the facts themselves. As the statistics were released, ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed in her speech in Hannover that she wanted to continue the cycle of further rate hikes. 

She also said that it needed to be clarified whether the already implemented hikes were enough. The hawkish stance of the ECB is also supported by data from the labour market, where the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in April, the lowest level since 1993. The tight labour market could create additional price pressures despite falling energy prices and slower growth in food prices. 

A strong labour market and a hawkish ECB attitude favour the single currency. We also note that the ECB only has a mandate for an inflation target, while the Fed must maintain maximum employment.

The euro area may be less sensitive to monetary policy than inflation in the US. This was evident in higher rates than in the US before 2008 and lower rates afterwards. Zero-rates era is over, so we expect a return of positive key rate differentials between Europe and the US in the coming years.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

Regulace: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

U.S. President Trump signed an order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and warned of steep hikes from that date, escalating trade tensions. U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, with the Dow down 0.94%, the S&P 500 falling 0.79%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.92%. Tesla also tumbled after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new political party.
ATFX | Před 2 h 23 min
Markets await trade deals as Trump makes new tariff threats

Markets await trade deals as Trump makes new tariff threats

Dollar edges higher, gold slips despite confusion and renewed trade tensions. Trump delays tariff deadline to August 1, says trade deals are close. Wall Street hits record after Congress passes Big Beautiful Bill. Oil recovers from lows after OPEC+ hikes output more than expected.
XM Group | Před 19 h 24 min
Yen Weakens as Japanese Data Sends Mixed Signals

Yen Weakens as Japanese Data Sends Mixed Signals

The USD/JPY pair edged higher on Monday, reaching 144.81, as the yen relinquished its earlier gains. The currency faced downward pressure following the release of disappointing wage figures, which dampened expectations for further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.
RoboForex | Před 20 h 2 min
Gold Struggles for Direction as Risk Mood Sours | 7th July, 2025

Gold Struggles for Direction as Risk Mood Sours | 7th July, 2025

On July 7, gold slips below $3,350 as the USD strengthens and traders take profit amid tariff-related jitters. Silver lingers under $37. EUR/USD and NZD/USD retreat on weak sentiment, while USD/CAD rises above 1.3900 as oil weakens. Markets brace for key data including US CPI and Eurozone retail sales, with Fed speeches also in focus.
Moneta Markets | Před 23 h 58 min
ATFX Economic Calendar- 2025.07.07~2025.07.11

ATFX Economic Calendar- 2025.07.07~2025.07.11

The ATFX Weekly Economic Calendar is a comprehensive resource designed to help traders and investors stay ahead of market-moving events. It outlines key economic data releases, central bank meetings, speeches, and geopolitical events for the week. This calendar provides a strategic tool for navigating global markets, offering insights into potential volatility triggers across multiple asset.
ATFX | Před 1 dnem
ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after President Trump’s landmark tax cut bill was passed, amid mounting pressure on countries to strike trade deals with Washington. As markets brace for the July 9 tariff deadline—targeting countries like Japan that have yet to reach agreements—the dollar index slipped 0.1% to 96.92.
ATFX | Před 1 dnem
Why Silver could be the precious metal of 2025

Why Silver could be the precious metal of 2025

The gold bar is metallic yellow and slightly behind the silver bar, which is metallic white and positioned in front. Gold may still be the headline act, but silver’s no longer content playing second fiddle. In 2025, silver isn’t just glittering - it’s surging forward as one of the most exciting metals on the market.
Deriv | Před 3 dny