-11122024742.png)
-11122024742.png)
Three-year stagnation in US durable goods orders
Three-year stagnation in US durable goods orders
Preliminary estimates of durable goods orders in the US showed a less sharp than expected dip in April. The decline was 6.3% versus a 7.5% jump a month earlier and an expected 7.6% drop. The volatility is almost entirely due to the transport sector, and without that component, there was a 0.2% gain for the month after an equal decline earlier. This indicator has been near a plateau for the past three years, adding only 1% in money over that time against a 12% rise in the Core CPI and a 9% rise in Core PPI. Simply put, America has been cutting investment in durable goods for about as long as the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet.
In the short term, the current report is relatively positive for demand for US assets, including the dollar, coming in above expectations. However, in the medium term, it is worth paying attention to the decline in orders expressed in real prices. This may indicate a growing threat of stagnation, if not contraction, of the US economy, bringing the Fed rate cut closer.
By the FxPro Analyst Team
Fed minutes awaited as risk rally eases, dollar extends recovery
New Zealand cut the rate, but not the kiwi
USD/JPY Rises Steadily as Yen Weakens Amid Bond Market Pressures
Crypto market postpones rally
Will Japan’s fiscal restraint stand out as U.S. Credit weakens?
Week 12 of EBC’s Million Dollar Trading Challenge II Was Full of Surprises, Here's Why
ATFX Market Outlook 28th May 2025
