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Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

Jan 19, 2020 at 20:58
Przeglądane 6,304
207 Replies
Uczestnik z Oct 20, 2018   300 postów
Jul 05, 2020 at 10:58





Hi all. A boring week again.
This week i`m going a bit long-term again with 2 charts again.
Can the history be repeated? (chart 1)
It`s not 100% sure that the history be repeated but since now it looks like it`s happening even with some little differences but they`re insignificant. I`ll not say much more and will let you to think about this pattern.

Bitcoin Puell multiple. (chart 2)
This is something really interesting too. Thanks to Glassnode and their Puell multiple (PM) chart we can see a never failed since now bullish signal and even more. We saw this signal in the past is 100% right and now it`s even confirmed cuz the PM line went down to the green zone, then went up out of it, then back down but it bounced almost at the border and went back up. You can check this chart on their site.

Actual PA situation:
1. The price is still trying to breach the upside line but still can`t do it.
2. 10 EMA – the price is perfectly bouncing from it again.
3. 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
4. Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
5. Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 10 weeks bullish signaling.
6. Weekly pivot point is $9249.13 – a similar scenario like the last two weeks. Sorry to say it again but seems like we`ll end this week below it which can lead to another negative (3rd) week next week.
7. Support and resistance:
7.1. Support:
1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
2nd support - $7800
7.2. Resistance:
1st resistance - $9500-9800
2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

Załączniki:

momchil_slavov@
Uczestnik z Apr 09, 2019   538 postów
Jul 06, 2020 at 08:54
Some great analysis. A real battleground between 9-10k
If you can't spot the liquidity then you are the liquidity.
Uczestnik z Oct 17, 2018   103 postów
Jul 07, 2020 at 14:26
Not sure history will do it again. dont see the hype behind bitcoin on the rally side at the moment. to many people looking to get in at a lower price. great read tho
Uczestnik z Apr 01, 2020   231 postów
Jul 08, 2020 at 00:20
Great analysis mate, I found it very useful. My question is what is your prediction for BTC price for remaining year of 2020?
Uczestnik z Oct 20, 2018   300 postów
Jul 11, 2020 at 09:18




Hi all. A bit more interesting week but nothing special.

Last week we`ve talked about history and can the it be repeated. This week i`ll continue with a 2in1 chart.

It`s simple enough and It`s all about Golden crosses (GC) and Death crosses (DC). I`m comparing the 2015 PA and GC/DC to the nowadays one. The GC are green circles and the DC are red ones. If someone don`t know what this crosses means – google it. Also If someone of you don`t know what happened after the end of 2015 lets check the charts. Till now the situation is 1:1 to the 2015, which is very interesting and let`s see how it will continue.

Actual PA situation:

The price is still trying to breach the upside line and now it`s a bit higher than it but nothing significant.
10 EMA – the price is perfectly bouncing from it again.
21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 11 weeks bullish signaling.
Weekly pivot point is $9093.94 – there`s good signs that we`ll close the week above it, which will be very positive for the next week.
Support and resistance:
Support:
1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
2nd support - $7800
Resistance:
1st resistance - $9500-9800
2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.

For now, the next week material will be close to this but a bit more interesting and promising, if something significant does not happen.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

Załączniki:

momchil_slavov@
Uczestnik z Mar 15, 2019   82 postów
Jul 12, 2020 at 11:29
I’m hoping it’s bullish, would like to see another push up to $10k… It’s been a while since its been up there.
All or nothing
Uczestnik z Apr 09, 2019   538 postów
Jul 13, 2020 at 12:09
Let's hope it is bullish. Needs to break out this tight range
If you can't spot the liquidity then you are the liquidity.
Uczestnik z Oct 20, 2018   300 postów
Jul 16, 2020 at 18:10






Hi all.
Like i`ve promised you last week, this week analysis will be a bit more interesting and promising than the last one. It`s in two parts (charts) so let`s get straight to the point.

Actual PA situation (chart 1):
The price broke the upper side of the symmetrical triangle which i`ve showed you almost a month ago. Well, technically it`s already a fact, but I want to see a more significant upper move to be 100% sure.
10 EMA – the price is perfectly bouncing from it again.
21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 12 weeks bullish signaling.
Weekly pivot point is $9279.63
Support and resistance:
Support:
1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile
2nd support - $7800
Resistance:
1st resistance - $9500-9800
2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.
Also got to mention that the BTC volatility is at it`s more than an year low. That talks about a significant move soon. Last such low was before the 14K run last summer.
All this points are 100% bullish and seems like Plan A is in play but we`ll see.

2 days chart (chart 2)
This chart is similar to the last week one but… here`s the two differences. First – it`s a 2 day chart but not 1 day (not very popular time frame). Second – it shows only 3 Golden crosses (GC) into the Bitcoin history and all this 3 GCs were 100% accurate. All this 3 GCs were followed from a massive bull runs. Guess what is about to happen right now… a 4th GC! Yes it`s happening right now. 50 and 200 MA are crossing each other and forming GC. It`s not fully formed for me but they`re crossing and it`s almost done. If you don`t see this as massive bullish signal I don`t know what other can be.

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

Załączniki:

momchil_slavov@
Uczestnik z Mar 18, 2019   98 postów
Jul 17, 2020 at 10:49
good stuff bro. bitcoin relatively stale right now. will chart over weekend and see.
Uczestnik z Apr 09, 2019   538 postów
Jul 17, 2020 at 14:46
BTC looking dull at the moment, hopefully just winding up to pop
If you can't spot the liquidity then you are the liquidity.
Uczestnik z Mar 15, 2019   82 postów
Jul 17, 2020 at 23:27
It seems to have been consolidating for a while, we must be due a big break soon surely.
All or nothing
Uczestnik z Jul 09, 2019   38 postów
Jul 21, 2020 at 10:49
sebking1986 posted:
BTC looking dull at the moment, hopefully just winding up to pop

True. When do you guys think it will reach $10000 again?
Uczestnik z Mar 18, 2019   11 postów
Jul 21, 2020 at 10:56
It is better for BTC is dull is the new normal and price stabalizes. It can then finally be used as an currency rather than an investment product
Uczestnik z Oct 20, 2018   300 postów
Jul 25, 2020 at 12:06


Hi all.
At last some activity for Bitcoin this week. Not much but for now it`s very bullish.

Actual PA situation:
1. At last the price significantly broke the upper side of the 3 years symmetrical triangle. If we close this week at this level the whole candle will be above this triangle which will be super.

2. 10 EMA – the price is perfectly bouncing from it again.

3. 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.

4. Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.

5. Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 13 weeks bullish signaling.

6. Weekly pivot point is $9196.56. We`re far from it so far, so I can say that next week can be positive too.

7. Support and resistance:

7.1. Support:

1st support - $8500 - 50% Fibo and VPVR profile

2nd support - $7800

7.2. Resistance:

1st resistance - $9500-9800

2nd resistance - $10500 – that will be a MAJOR resistance not only for the mid-term but also in a long-term, on the way to the next ATH like mentioned above.

8. Like I told you last week the BTC volatility is very low. Under 40 actually. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when this happened it`s followed by a significant move soon after it. Despite the corona drop, last such low was before the 14K run last summer.
All this points are 100% bullish and seems like Plan A is in play.

P.S. The 4th Golden gross on a 2D chart into a Bitcoin history is already a fact!

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

Załączniki:

momchil_slavov@
Uczestnik z Mar 18, 2019   98 postów
Jul 25, 2020 at 19:03
lavis_book posted:
sebking1986 posted:
BTC looking dull at the moment, hopefully just winding up to pop

True. When do you guys think it will reach $10000 again?

i def think we will see 10k this year again.
Uczestnik z Mar 15, 2019   82 postów
Jul 26, 2020 at 12:09
Thanks for taking the time to analyse, it just shot up! Hope the momentum continues.
All or nothing
Uczestnik z Apr 09, 2019   538 postów
Jul 27, 2020 at 10:39
Moving very quickly these past few days! Full expect a retrace at some point but hopefully not right back to 9k again.
If you can't spot the liquidity then you are the liquidity.
Uczestnik z Oct 20, 2018   300 postów
Aug 02, 2020 at 11:55


Hi all.
What a week for Bitcoin right? Like I’m repeating you last weeks it was imminent to see such movement.
Before the actual price action, I want to summarize the week into a couple of words.
First, we broke the 3 years symmetrical triangle at last and we did it with a significant volume. Till this night drop I was a bit concerned cuz we literally skyrocketed and like I’ve told you in the past, such movement without a correction is not healthy. At second point let`s get to this night drop. Yes, it was significant but for me it`s actually a perfectly bullish. Why? You`ll see from the price action below.

Actual PA situation:
Support and resistance:
Support:
1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance. This support has been tested already with this night drop and done it`s job perfectly. That`s why I’m bullish about this drop.
2nd support - $9000
Resistance:
1st resistance - $12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR.
2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR).
Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 14 weeks bullish signaling.
Weekly pivot point is $9757.62. We`re far from it so far, so I can say that next week can be positive too.
BTC volatility is still under 40 actually so more movements can be expected.
That`s all for now. Not much may be, but I think it`s explaining the actual situation. Next week i`ll try to go deeper.
See ya next time.

Załączniki:

momchil_slavov@
Uczestnik z Apr 09, 2019   538 postów
Aug 03, 2020 at 14:04
Good stuff bud! Hopefully we see continuation to the upside this week!
If you can't spot the liquidity then you are the liquidity.
Uczestnik z Oct 20, 2018   300 postów
Aug 08, 2020 at 15:58






Hi all.
Well, nothing major happened this week for me and despite the very good green candle, which is forming, there`s nothing more to say about the PA. Other than that, there`s something very good and major happened with Bitcoin but you`ll see it from the second chart.

Actual PA situation (chart 1):
1. Support and resistance:
1.1. Support:
1st support - $10500 – last MAJOR resistance. This support has been tested already with this night drop and done it`s job perfectly. That`s why I’m bullish about this drop.
2nd support - $9000
1.2. Resistance:
1st resistance - $12500 – almost the last bigger resistance before the clear skies, accordingly to VPVR.
2nd resistance - $14000 – the last resistance before the 20K test I can say (the last top + VPVR).
Somewhere between 1st and 2nd resistance is $10K, which can act as a support too cuz of the psychological level.
2. 10 EMA – the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
3. 21 EMA - the price is still above it even without a touch of it.
4. Correlation between 10 and 21 EMA – Despite the Corona drop every time when the 10 EMA is above the 21 EMA and the price is above both we can predict a very good bull period.
5. Parabolic SAR – Another bullish week and there`s 15 weeks bullish signaling.
6. Weekly pivot point is $11035.14. We`re far from it so far, so I can say that next week can be positive too.
7. BTC volatility is still under 40 actually so more movements can be expected. We`ve saw only a small part till now.

Bitcoin Realized price (chart2):
Thanks to Glassnode again we can check the Bitcoin Realized price chart. It`s very simple and clear. The grey line is the BTC price. The orange line is Realized price. Realized Price is the Realized Cap divided by the current supply. Or simply said that`s the price of all BTC paid in circulation right now. This Realized price at the moment is around $6000 and even above, which is the new all time high (ATH). If we check back in the past, every time when we saw such ATH we`ve had a parabolic run and a new price ATH afterward. BUUULISH!!!

That`s all for now.
See ya next time.

Załączniki:

momchil_slavov@
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