The Australian currency is declining against the US dollar amid historically strong Consumer Price Data in Q1 2022. Now AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend, at around 0.7155.
The country's inflation rate reached 5.1% for the first time in more than 20 years, adding 2.1% for the current quarter and demonstrating the highest growth rate on record, while the Export Price Index rose from 3.5% to 18.0%. Investors are looking forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting scheduled for May 3, during which, as predicted, the interest rate could be increased by 15 basis points to 0.25%, in which case the pre-election position of Prime Minister Scott Morrison could seriously deteriorate. Even now, in addition to ordinary citizens, Australian officials are also expressing their dissatisfaction with his policies. The day before, the candidate for Finance Minister from the Labor Party, Jim Chalmers, accused the Prime Minister of rising prices and falling living standards. He noted that the current price increase is only the beginning, and major financial shocks await citizens ahead.
On the daily chart, the price is within the Expanding Formation pattern, approaching the support line. Technical indicators continue holding a steady sell signal: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.
Support levels: 0.7087, 0.6965 | Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.757
USDCHF, D1 On the daily chart, the price continues its active growth, which began in April. Last week, the trading instrument reached its highest values since May 2020 at the level of 0.9758, if it is broken out, the uptrend may continue; however, at present, the development of a downward correction of quotations to the area of 0.9572 (retracement of 23.6%), 0.9533 (extension of 100.0%, Ascending Fan line of 38.2%) is not excluded. In general, the potential for strengthening USD/CHF is quite high, which is signaled by the upward reversal of Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone, but Stochastic is reversing downwards in the overbought zone and may leave it, having formed a sell signal.
USDCHF, W1 On the weekly chart, the price is actively breaking through the Opposite Descending Fan and is currently testing the level of 0.9670 (retracement of 61.8%), but has not consolidated above it yet. If successful, the growth of the trading instrument may continue to the levels of 0.9900 (the area of March 2020 highs) and 1.0192 (retracement of 100.0%). Otherwise, a corrective decline to the levels of 0.9510 (retracement of 50.0%) and 0.9350 (retracement of 38.2%) is possible. The uptrend in the asset continues, which is signaled by an upward reversal of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic, as well as an increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone; however, the price chart leaving the upper Bollinger Band does not exclude a downward correction.
In the near future, a downward correction to the levels of 0.9572 (retracement of 23.6%, D1) and 0.9510 (retracement of 50.0%, W1) is possible. If the price consolidates above 0.9758 (the Opposite Descending Fan line of 61.8%, W1), USDCHF will probably continue to strengthen towards 0.99 (the March 2020 highs area) and 1.0192 (retracement of 100.0%, W1).
Market in anticipation of an increase in interest rates in the US
NZDUSD has been showing a downtrend since the end of last month, this week reaching its lowest levels since June 2020 around 0.6410. The pressure on the instrument is due to two main factors: the expectation of tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and a decrease in prices for dairy products, which are New Zealand's main export goods.
On Wednesday, May 4, a meeting of the US Fed will be held, at which, as expected, the interest rate may be increased by 50 basis points, and it may also be announced that the regulator's balance sheet will be reduced, which will correct the record inflation growth in the country, that has reached forty-year high, and support the national currency. Many experts believe that a sharp increase in rates could lead to a recession in the US economy; moreover, according to preliminary data in Q1 2022, it has already decreased by 1.4%. However, US Fed officials hope that a significant decline will not happen and are ready to take risks, considering a significant increase in prices a more serious problem than a possible slowdown in economic development.
Meanwhile, milk prices have continued their downward correction since mid-March, shedding 3.6% despite a general increase in the cost of raw materials and food products. Today, the Global Dairy Trade will publish new statistics, and if the current trend continues, the New Zealand currency may be under significant pressure.
The price fell below 0.6470 (Murray [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%), which opens the way to 0.6347 (Murray [4/8]) and 0.6295 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). The key for the 'bulls' seems to be the level of 0.6591 (Murray [6/8]), consolidation above which will allow the trading instrument to continue its upward movement to the area of 0.6714 (Murray [7/8], the center line of Bollinger Bands) and 0.6835 (Murray [8/8]). However, this option is less likely at the moment, as technical indicators show that the downtrend continues: Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, MACD is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is horizontal in the oversold zone.
Resistance levels: 0.6591, 0.6714, 0.6835 | Support levels: 0.6347, 0.6295
The euro continues to trade at extremely low levels against its major counterparts, with the exception of the US dollar. Quotes of EURGBP are currently being corrected around 0.8391.
Macroeconomic data published the day before were weak: the Manufacturing PMI of Italy fell in April to 54.5 points from 55.8 points last month, and the same indicator in Germany declined to 54.6 points from 56.9 points, and only in France the value remained unchanged at the level of 55.7 points. Thus, the Composite Manufacturing PMI for the EU countries amounted to 55.5 points, which coincided with the March statistics and signals a slowdown in the eurozone economy.
In turn, the British currency currently looks much more confident than the European one. Today, data on the UK Manufacturing PMI for April will be published, and if the actual data coincide with the analysts' forecast, which suggests that the figure will remain unchanged at 55.3 points, this may serve as additional support for the pound.
Meanwhile, the issue of energy security in the EU and the UK is becoming increasingly acute. At the end of last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that the country would not use its veto power over the EU decision to declare an embargo on Russian oil. He also announced the readiness to stop the supply of Russian coal this summer and refuse to import oil until the end of the year against the backdrop of a serious reduction in the purchase of 'blue fuel'. Meanwhile, the UK Treasury Chancellor said at a meeting with representatives of energy companies that the government is considering the option of imposing an additional tax on enterprises that are not ready to invest in protecting energy security. With gas prices skyrocketing, market participants, in his opinion, should include funding for a package of measures for the design of alternative energy sources and reducing imports in their development plans, since bills for ordinary citizens have doubled in the last year alone and will continue to grow in the autumn, which led to to social tension. Thus, the UK Labor Party is calling for a lump-sum tax on excess profits earned by companies such as BP Plc. and Shell Plc.
The asset is trading within the global Diamond pattern, and after reaching the resistance line, it forms a reversal. Technical indicators are holding a global buy signal, which is starting to weaken: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator started to converge, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming descending bars, being in the buy zone.
Support levels: 0.8359, 0.8251 | Resistance levels: 0.8463, 0.8587
GBPUSD, in anticipation of the meeting of the Bank of England
The pound shows flat trading dynamics against the US currency during the morning session on May 4, consolidating near the level of 1.2500. Traders are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the publication of the US Fed Meeting Minutes. Analysts have little doubt that the key interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points at once; however, some of them allow for a correction by 75 basis points, citing record inflation over 40 years, as well as fairly stable trends in the labor market as arguments.
A meeting of the Bank of England will also take place this week, the result of which may be an increase in interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%, and by the end of 2022, experts predict an increase in the value in the range of 2–2.25%. Particular attention of traders will be riveted to the statement of the Governor of the regulator Andrew Bailey and his rhetoric regarding the steps of the financial authorities to curb inflationary pressure. Consumer prices in the United Kingdom are showing their fastest rate of growth in 30 years, already causing household incomes to plummet for the first time since 1956. It is estimated that electricity consumption for a typical British household this year will cost 620 pounds more than in 2021.
Macroeconomic statistics from the UK released yesterday provided additional support to GBP. The Manufacturing PMI from Markit in April rose from 55.3 to 55.8 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts, and the BRC Shop Price Index released today showed an acceleration year-on-year from 2.1 % to 2.7% in March, which coincided with analysts' estimates.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the 'bears'. MACD indicator is trying to reverse upwards and form a new buy signal (the histogram has to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic, having shown corrective growth at the end of the last trading week is once again reversing into a horizontal plane, indicating an approximate balance of traders' sentiment in the ultra-short term.
The American currency shows flat trading dynamics in tandem with the Canadian dollar, consolidating near 1.2835. The day before, USDCAD showed an active decline, retreating from local highs since the end of December 2021, which was caused by investors fixing long positions in anticipation of the publication of the final protocols of the US Federal Reserve. The consolidated forecast assumes an increase in the interest rate by 50 basis points at once; in addition, the US regulator is likely to announce the start of a program to reduce its balance sheet in the amount of almost 9 trillion dollars. It is possible that officials may decide to take more active steps aimed at tightening monetary policy, as well as adjust their plans for the near future.
This week statistics on the national labor markets of the US and Canada traditional for the beginning of the month will be published. Both reports will appear on Friday and may have a significant impact on the dynamics of the trading instrument. Forecasts suggest that the US economy created about 400K jobs in April, which is slightly lower than the previous value of 431K, while the Unemployment Rate may fall from 3.6% to 3.5%. An increase in the Number of Employed in Canada by 55K people is expected, which is also worse than last month's data, when the figure was 72.5K; however, the Unemployment Rate may also correct from 5.3% to 5.2%.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily growing. The price range slightly expands from above, but remains too spacious for the current flat nature of trading. MACD is reversing into a descending plane, forming a weak sell signal (trying to consolidate below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, signaling in favor of the development of the correctional decline in the ultra-short term.
A serious rally in the oil market, associated with global economic instability and the development of the Ukrainian crisis, has been going on for more than two months and is unlikely to stop in the near future. Last week, the quotes of WTI Crude Oil resumed growth and rose to the level of 106.25 (Murray [7/8]), which is now being actively tested.
The market is in a state of considerable uncertainty, as it is influenced by several opposite factors. The pressure on energy quotes is exerted by the complex epidemiological situation in China, where an increase in the incidence of coronavirus is recorded. At the moment, Beijing remains under threat of complete lockdown, while the financial and industrial center of Shanghai has been in strict isolation for more than a month. The continued tightening of quarantine restrictions continues to jeopardize the demand for oil from the Chinese economy, which is its first global consumer.
On the other hand, the embargo announced today on the supply of Russian oil and petroleum products to the EU countries contributes to the growth of quotations. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced her readiness to refuse the purchase of raw materials by the end of this year. However, an exception will be made for a number of countries most dependent on Russian oil, for example Hungary and Slovakia. The embargo on Russian resources, which account for 26% of imports to the EU, creates the problem of replacing the missing volumes. It will not be easy to solve it, since global production is already unable to meet demand. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ cartel is in no hurry to increase oil production, as its members are satisfied with the current windfall. It is expected that during the meeting scheduled for Thursday, a decision will be made to maintain a moderate pace of production growth.
Another factor supporting prices is the reduction of reserves of 'black gold'. According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), a decrease of 3.479M barrels was recorded. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) will be released today, which may also reflect a downward correction of 0.829M barrels. Under these conditions, oil quotes may continue the upward trend.
Consolidation of the price above the mark of 106.25 (Murray [5/8]) will give the prospect of growth of the trading instrument to the levels of 112.50 (Murray [6/8], Fibo retracement of 23.6%) and 118.75 (Murray [7/8]). If the price consolidates below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the 100.00 mark (Murray [4/8]), the decline will resume in the area of 93.75 (Murray [3/8]) and 87.50 (Murray [2/8], Fibo retracement of 61.8%).
The indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant, and the Stochastic is directed downwards.
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0600 and local highs from April 27. The day before, EURUSD showed the strongest growth in the last few weeks, which was the market's reaction to the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
As expected, the US regulator raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to the range of 0.75%–1.00% and announced the start of a quantitative tightening program, but it will not immediately reach the final volumes of purchases. From June 1, the Fed will start selling securities for a total of 47.5 billion dollars, after which it will increase the total monthly sales to 95 billion dollars within three months. The 'hawks', who expected that the regulator would immediately bring purchases to the final amount, were somewhat disappointed by this decision. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by the rhetoric of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who said that the issue of raising the interest rate by 50 basis points would also be discussed at the next meetings. Thus, the risks that the indicator will be corrected at a more aggressive pace have almost completely disappeared.
In turn, pressure on the euro was exerted by frankly weak statistics on Retail Sales in the eurozone. In March, the indicator fell by 0.4% after rising by the same amount a month ago, and in annual terms, the pace slowed sharply from 5.2% to 0.8%, while analysts had expected an increase of 1.4%.
At the moment, eurozone household spending continues to grow strongly against the backdrop of rising gas and energy prices. Electricity rates, which nearly doubled in 2021, will add another 50% to the cost this year before a correction begins, according to World Bank statistics. The tightening of anti-Russian sanctions in connection with the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine also contributes to the negative dynamics. The day before, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the readiness to introduce a gradual embargo on crude oil for six months, and on oil products until the end of this year. If the EU countries fail to replace the volumes, the economy will face negative consequences: the already record inflation will continue to increase and it will become more difficult for companies to fulfill their obligations to customers, which will undoubtedly lead to stagnation.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moderately declining. The price range is slightly narrowing, staying spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal, being located above the signal line. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.
The Australian dollar shows negative dynamics against the US currency during the Asian session, correcting after a sharp rise the day before, which contributed to the movement of AUDUSD quotes to new local highs from April 22.
Investors evaluate the results of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, at which officials raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.00%, and also announced a phased introduction of a quantitative tightening program. From June this year, the regulator will begin to reduce its balance sheet by 47.5 billion dollars a month, and from September the pace will increase to 95 billion dollars. The regulator also noted in a statement that economic activity declined in the first quarter amid elevated inflation. The fears of American officials are also caused by the complication of the epidemiological situation in China, since against the background of the quarantine restrictions introduced, serious disruptions in supply chains are possible. Thus, the US financial regulator made the previously announced decisions, and also signaled a moderate rate increase in the future, which caused a wave of disappointment among investors, as well as a sell-off of the US currency.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is growing, having formed a strong buy signal and being located above the signal line. Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought AUD in the ultra-short term.
On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level (5) of 3 continues, in which wave 3 of (5) has formed. At the moment, there is a downward correction as the fourth wave 4 of (5), within which wave c of 4 is being formed.
If the assumption is correct, after it is finished, the growth of XAUUSD will continue to the levels of 2100 - 2200. The level of 1827.33 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.
The US dollar shows moderate growth, developing a strong 'bullish' momentum formed the day before and updating record highs since March 2020.
Market activity remains subdued again, as US investors prefer to wait for the April report on the national labor market to be published at the end of the week. However, after the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve, as well as rather restrained comments by the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who promised not to exceed a reasonable rate of increase in the value by 50 basis points, interest in macroeconomic publications has noticeably decreased. One way or another, the labor market is still one of the key indicators for the US Federal Reserve when making decisions on monetary policy. Forecasts for the current report are quite optimistic and suggest an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by almost 400 thousand (against 431 thousand last month) and a decrease in the Unemployment Rate from 3.6% to 3.5%.
Last Monday, the head of the Swiss Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research Guy Parmelin admitted that in the event of an embargo of Russian oil and gas, the situation in the national economy would become much more complicated. Against this background, the Federal Council decided to create by the end of this year an organization to overcome crisis situations in the gas industry and possible shortages of “blue fuel”, as well as a tracking system that will control possible risks of electricity shortages at an early stage.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily growing. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of “bullish” activity at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from its highs at the beginning of the week is again reversing into a horizontal plane, still indicating the risks of the instrument being overbought in the ultra-short term.
The British pound is trading ambiguously against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating near 1.2360. After a sharp decline in the trading instrument the day before, which led to an update of record lows since June 2020, trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to take short profits.
Noticeable pressure on quotes was put by the results of the meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. As expected, the regulator raised the rate by 25 basis points and brought it to a 13-year high of 1.00% per annum in order to contain the maximum rate of inflation, which reached a 30-year high of around 7%. The decision was taken unanimously, which allows us to hope for the smooth implementation of further plans for a gradual tightening of monetary policy. By Q2 2023, it is planned to reach the rate level of 2.5%. The Bank also said that it expects consumer prices in the UK to rise by 10.25% this year (the highest since 1982) due to the Ukrainian crisis and coronavirus restrictions in China. Department officials have warned that prices are likely to rise faster than the incomes of many citizens, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis. In general, according to the regulator, in the last quarter of the year, the country's economy may expect a recession. The latest comments have greatly disappointed investors and put pressure on the pound's position. In addition, officials have adjusted downward the forecast for GDP growth in 2023 from 1.25% to 1.00%.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the 'bears'. MACD has formed a new sell signal (the histogram is again below the signal line), and Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, reversing downwards approximately in the middle of its area.
On the daily chart, GBPJPY is correcting above 157.96 and 159 levels. On the 4H time frame, the pair violated the ascending trendline with a weak selling force. The breach could be a whipsaw. However, if the breakout is correct, the instrument will target 157.96 and 159 supports. This scenario remains operational as long as GBPJPY trades below the 25 daily moving average and the descending trendline.
On the other hand, the uptrend continues if the bulls breach the descending trendline and the 25 moving average. In this scenario, the pair will target 164.24 and 168.42.
Gold prices show moderate corrective growth, consolidating after an active decline yesterday, returning the XAU/USD pair to the local lows of May 3. Currently, the instrument is testing 1860, receiving support from technical factors.
The strengthening dollar and the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds put pressure on the positions of the metal. Thus, the underlying 10-year securities reached 3.185%, which is the highest level since November 2018, but now, it has corrected to the area of 3.040%, while the USD Index exceeded the high of December 2002 at 104.120, but now it has fallen to 103.590. Also, last week, the US Federal Reserve expectedly increased interest rates by 50 points to 1.00% and announced the start of a phased reduction in its balance sheet. In subsequent comments, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, dispelled reports that in the future, officials could accelerate the pace of monetary tightening and, for example, adjust the rate by 75 percentage points. Against this backdrop, gold quotes are supported by the prospects for continued growth in consumer inflation in the US during the current quarter, although it has already reached its highest level in 40 years, around 8.5%. Tomorrow, American investors will be watching the April statistics, which may show the first signs of weakening. In particular, it is assumed that the consumer prices will be only 0.2% MoM after rising by 1.2% for March and may fall 8.5% to 8.1% YoY.
Bollinger Bands show a moderate decline on the daily chart: the price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. MACD falls, keeping a poor sell signal below the signal line. Stochastic falls close to its lows, indicating that instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.
The British pound is trading up against the US currency, trying to recover from four sessions of decline, which led to new record lows since June 2020. The instrument remains under pressure from extremely low demand for risky assets, which, in turn, pushes the US currency to update record highs.
Despite an attempt by the Bank of England to stabilize the situation, experts fear that a sharp rise in interest rates could have an extremely negative impact on the recovery of the British economy, up to the onset of a recession. Meanwhile, the situation with energy resources remains tense, given that the EU and the UK continue to increase sanctions pressure against the Russian economy in response to a special military operation in Ukraine. Last Sunday, the leaders of the G7 countries held talks via videoconference, during which they supported the decision to phase out energy resources, as well as a ban on oil imports from Russia.
The data published the day before put additional pressure on the British currency. Thus, BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales in April showed a decrease of 1.7% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, while analysts expected an acceleration of negative dynamics, but expected a slightly more modest decrease of –1.6%. Tomorrow, investors will follow the publication of updated data on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q1 2022.
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator reverses to growth while forming a new buy signal (the histogram is about to consolidate above the zero level). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, recovering from its lows, indicating the risks of oversold pound in the ultra-short term.
The British pound is trading with mixed dynamics against the US currency during the morning session, holding in the area of local highs from May 5 and resistance at around 1.2500.
The pound was supported the day before by strong data on the UK labor market for March-April. Claimant Count Change in April decreased by 56.9 thousand after falling by 81.6 thousand a month earlier. Analysts expected a decline of only 38.8 thousand. The Average Earnings Excluding Bonus accelerated in March from 4.1% to 4.2%, which coincided with experts' estimates. The Average Earnings Including Bonus accelerated its growth from 5.6% to 7.0%, which turned out to be significantly better than the market's expectations of a slowdown to 5.4%. ILO Unemployment Rate in the UK in March fell from 3.8% to 3.7% with neutral forecasts.
Today, investors are awaiting the publication of statistics on consumer inflation for April. Current forecasts suggest a further acceleration of the indicator from 7% to a new record high of 9.1%. If market expectations are justified, pressure on the Bank of England may increase sharply, forcing the regulator to act more decisively on the issue of tightening monetary policy.
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range narrows slightly from above, but still remains spacious enough for the current level of market activity. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains upward direction but is located near its highs, which indicates the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.
XAGUSD, silver prices are consolidating around 21.50
Silver prices show a slight decline during the Asian session, testing the level of 21.5 for a breakdown. The instrument managed to update the local highs of May 11 the day before; however, the 'bulls' failed to consolidate on new levels, as a result of which XAGUSD returned to the opening levels. Pressure on the positions of the instrument was exerted by optimistic macroeconomic data from the USA.
Tuesday’s statistics on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the US was better than market expectations. In April, Retail Sales volumes slowed down from 1.4% to 0.9%, while analysts expected a decline to 0.7%. Retail Sales excluding Autos for the same period slowed down from 2.1% to 0.6%, which turned out to be twice as good as experts' forecasts. Retail Sales Control Group declined marginally from 1.1% to 1.0% in April, while forecasts suggested a sharp slowdown to 0.5%. Thus, sales figures do not yet reflect a dramatic slowdown in consumer activity within the country. This removes some of the risks from investors who are concerned about a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve.
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.
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