Technical & Fundamental Analysis by Sold ECN Securities

AUDUSD, the instrument is testing 0.7500 for the breakout

During the Asian session, the AUDUSD pair is actively growing, re-testing the level of 0.7500 for the breakout. The instrument is developing a 'bullish' momentum formed at the end of the last week. However, the general dynamics of the short-term outlook remain flat for now.

A strong report on the US labor market, published on Friday, did not allow quotations to consolidate on new local highs. However, the data from Australia were also positive. Thus, the AiG manufacturing activity index rose from 53.2 to 55.7 points for March, which outpaced the average market forecasts, while the Australian Commonwealth Bank manufacturing PMI index rose from 57.3 to 57.7 points over the same period against neutral expectations of investors. The National Reserve Bank Commodity Price Index accelerated from 34% to 40.9% in March, well above the expected 10% rise. At the same time, statistics on the credit market disappointed traders: for February, the volume of mortgage loans issued decreased by 4.7% after increasing by 1% last month, although preliminary market estimates suggested an increase of 1%. An additional 'bearish' factor for the asset is the index of the number of vacancies published today by the Australian financial group ANZ. For March, the indicator slowed down sharply from 8.4% to 0.4%, significantly worse than market forecasts of 1.6%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily rising: the price range is actively narrowing, indicating ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic interrupted its confident fall and reversed into a horizontal plane approximately in the center of its working area.

Resistance levels: 0.755, 0.76, 0.765, 0.77 | Support levels: 0.75, 0.744, 0.7366, 0.73

GBPUSD, flat dynamics in the short term

The pound shows a weak upward dynamics of trading during the morning session, developing the 'bullish' momentum formed the day before, when GBP/USD retreated from the local lows of March 30. Demand for the British currency remains quite low, and in general, the instrument shows rather flat dynamics in the short term, due to growing risks of increased pressure against the Russian economy due to the situation in Ukraine.

Western countries are discussing the introduction of another package of sanctions against the Russian economy, referring to the crimes of the Russian military in the Ukrainian city of Bucha. New restrictions could include a ban on Russian ships using EU ports, an embargo on coal, oil or gas supplies, and personal sanctions.

The UK announced a complete embargo on Russian oil imports back in March, as the dependence of the British economy on energy from the Russian Federation is significantly lower than that of European countries. However, prices for 'black gold', gasoline and gas are growing here too, threatening the pace of national economic recovery. Earlier, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warned that the country could face the most powerful crisis since 1970, and inflation by the end of 2022 could reach 9%.

It should also be noted that the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said that he had instructed the Royal Mint to develop and issue its own non-fungible token (NFT) by this summer. Thus, the British authorities are trying to take a leading position in the crypto space and take the regulation of digital assets in the country to a new level. In particular, some tokens will be included in the national payment system to legalize work with them, traders will be able to receive advice when trading, and groups will be created to interact with crypto assets, chaired by ministers and members of regulatory bodies in the UK and industry.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic turned into a horizontal plane in the center of its area, indicating an approximate balance of power in the short and ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.315, 1.32, 1.325, 1.33 | Support levels: 1.31, 1.305, 1.3, 1.296

EURUSD, the euro develops a downtrend

The European currency is trading with a slight decrease against the US dollar during the Asian session, testing 1.0900 for a breakdown and updating local lows from March 9. Market sentiment correlates with the predominantly 'bearish' trend in EURUSD since the end of last week.

Investors are assessing the prospects for further acceleration of inflation in the region as the EU considers the introduction of another package of sanctions against the Russian economy after evidence of war crimes in the Ukrainian city of Bucha. It is expected that the new restrictions will affect the import of coal for 4 billion euros per year, as well as equipment for the gas industry, transport and other industries for 10 billion euros per year. The sanctions will also affect the ban on investment, in particular; it is planned to introduce new measures against financial institutions and state-owned enterprises, as well as a number of representatives of the Russian authorities and their families. The European Union will stop buying fertilizers, timber and a number of food products from Russia, which in the current realities is estimated at about 5.5 billion dollars a year. Imports of Russian oil, as well as natural gas, remain practically unchanged, since for many EU countries this is a fundamental issue of energy security. In particular, Germany and Hungary oppose a complete embargo. At the moment, the EU buys almost 40% of all gas and about 60% of oil and oil products from Russia.

Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published on Tuesday turned out to be restrainedly optimistic, but did not have a noticeable impact on the market. The Composite Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone in March rose from 54.5 to 54.9 points with a neutral forecast. The Services PMI for the same period increased from 54.8 to 55.6 points, while analysts did not expect any changes here either.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is expanding, but at the moment it is not keeping up with the surge of 'bearish' sentiment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains stable downward direction but is located in close proximity to the zero level, which indicates the risks of oversold euro in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1, 1.1051, 1.11 | Support levels: 1.09, 1.086, 1.08, 1.0767

S&P 500, the US market is correcting

The US stock market continues to evaluate the recent revision of financial forecasts from leading analytical agencies. The day before, analysts at UBS Group AG raised the target price of Meta Platforms Inc. shares for Q2 2022 from 280 to 300 dollars. In turn, Chevron Corp., according to UBS Group AG estimates, will rise from 150 to 192 dollars. Prior to this, Goldman Sachs Group analysts also raised their forecast for the issuer's shares.

The US bond market is currently experiencing active growth: the rate of return on 10-year Treasury bonds rises by 2.44% and by 1.89% on conservative 20-year ones. More dynamic growth is traditionally demonstrated by short-term assets: annual bonds grow by 2.55%, and 6-month bonds rise by 4.26%.

The index quotes are traded in a local uptrend, having overcome the resistance line of the lateral channel the day before. Technical indicators are holding a local buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone.

Support levels: 4470.0, 4216 | Resistance levels: 4630, 4800

EURUSD, the US Federal Reserve intends to speed up the rate hike

In the absence of positive drivers that can reverse or temporarily stop the current downtrend, the European currency continues to lose value, correcting around 1.0913 actively.

The problems associated with the energy confrontation between the EU and Russia are growing, and after statements by several German officials about the refusal of gas supplies, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, in an interview with the LCI television channel, said that the EU countries could permanently lose access to cheap 'blue fuel' in in the event of termination of cooperation since Russia will look for other markets. The recently published data on the producer price index also did not add positively to traders, which was worse than expected: the February indicator was 1.1%, which is below the forecasted 1.3%, and the annual growth was recorded at 31.4%, which is also below preliminary estimates of the market at 31.5%.

The index of the American currency could not overcome the psychologically important level of around 100 points and remained lower, around 99.600. The minutes of the meeting of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) published yesterday confirmed analysts' forecasts that the regulator consolidates to accelerate the increase in the interest rate and also has plans to significantly reduce the balance sheet capital, according to preliminary estimates, in the amount of up to 2T dollars.

The asset is moving within a wide downward channel and has begun working out the local Flag pattern. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms down bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1070, 1.1232 | Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0600

GBPUSD, consolidation near the level of 1.306

Current Trend
GBPUSD has been fluctuating in a wide range of 1.3045-1.3106 over the past three trading sessions, continuing to lose value after consolidating below the April 6 low at 1.3045 following the release of 'hawkish' Minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the moment, quotes are consolidating near the level of 1.3060.

The situation around Ukraine is still in the spotlight. Western countries continue to introduce new restrictions against the Russian economy, primarily aimed at reducing or completely banning energy imports. The export of high-tech equipment, cars and agricultural machinery is also noticeably limited. However, these measures have not yet brought the expected effect, since the special military operation continues. At the same time, the position of the Western authorities has become a catalyst for updating record highs in commodity markets, which threatens to increase inflation in many regions of the world. Against this background, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK intends to use more fossil fuels and commission one new nuclear reactor per year in order to maintain energy security. In addition, the country's government intends to abandon imported oil and gas in order to avoid a rapid increase in energy tariffs in the future, so this autumn another round of distribution of licenses for the development of the North Sea shelf by British oil and gas enterprises will be held.

The macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom released the day before only confirmed the fact of a rapid increase in inflation: the Halifax House Price Index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.4% in March, while analysts expected a slowdown in dynamics to 0.4%.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is trying to reverse upwards and form a new buy signal (the histogram is trying to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, trying to retreat from the oversold area (below the level of '20').

Resistance levels: 1.31, 1.315, 1.32, 1.325 | Support levels: 1.305, 1.3, 1.296, 1.29.

EURUSD, 'bears' leveled the price gap at the opening of trading

During the Asian session, the EURUSD pair is declining, opening with a slight positive gap. Now the 'bears' have leveled the gap, and the instrument is retesting 1.0880 for a downward breakdown.

The market's general situation changes slightly, and the demand for risky assets remains under pressure. Despite the growing sanctions, Russia continues to conduct a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, while peace negotiations have almost completely faded. Last week, the EU countries agreed on a new, already the fifth package of sanctions, which, among other things, provides for new restrictions on the import of Russian coal: a complete ban on the purchase, import, or transit of solid fuel. The bill will take effect from August 10, and before that, the parties can fulfill contracts concluded before April 9. Thus, the EU authorities want to prevent the worsening of the situation with inflation, which is currently reacting sharply to the dynamics of the commodity areas. The key issue with importing oil and natural gas is still open. The European authorities have not yet developed a unified attitude towards the Russian oil embargo, although certain steps are being taken in this direction.

Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor the results of the presidential elections in France. After counting 97% of the votes in the first round, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron takes the lead with about 27.6% of the vote. Second place goes to the head of the right-wing National Rally party, Marine Le Pen. The next round of elections is due on April 24.

Bollinger bands are moderately decreasing on the daily chart, and the price range is expanding from below, letting the 'bears' renew local lows. The MACD indicator is trying to reverse into an upward plane, keeping the sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows a similar trend, reversing upwards near its lows, signaling that the euro is oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.09, 1.0957, 1.1, 1.1051 | Support levels: 1.086, 1.0835, 1.08, 1.0767.

Crude Oil, the oil market is preparing for a new trend

Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting downwards, trading just above $100 a barrel.
The escalation of the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine, which has become the cause of unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions, causes investors to fear that there will be a shortage of supply on the market due to the refusal of some countries to import Russian energy resources. However, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo acknowledged that the European Union has little to replace the oil it imports from Russia, and because of the sanctions, the world market may face the loss of about 7M barrels of Russian oil per day.

The pressure on the market comes from unprecedented measures to release reserve reserves of their oil in 120M barrels by countries participating in the International Energy Agency, such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea, to stabilize market prices. Also, to the release by the IEA countries of 120M barrels, 60M barrels will fall on the main member of the agency, the United States, which will supply an additional 120M barrels of its reserves to the market independently. Japan has already released 15M barrels, and South Korea is preparing to increase its supply by 7.23M barrels.

The market has another reason. It is no secret that the largest positions are formed on the stock exchange in double positions called 'spread.' There is a historical situation when the index of the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of world currencies, USD Index, and Brent Crude Oil cost the same. Quotes of both the dollar index and oil are around 100, which creates the possibility of working on expanding the difference in these prices in both directions at once. In other words, both positions are being formed on the rise in oil/fall in the dollar index and the fall in oil/rise in the dollar index. In any case, the amount of money in this position is already huge, which is evident from the volatility, and, therefore, this will lead to serious price fluctuations soon.

On the global chart, the price continues to trade within the formation of the global Triangle pattern. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the Alligator EMA began to expand downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved into the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 103.44, 118.07 | Support levels: 96.20, 81.44

XAGUSD, metal quotes are recovering

Silver prices show a weak increase during the Asian session, retesting the level of 25.5. The instrument has been developing a fairly active uptrend since April 6, retreating from local lows since the end of last month and receiving support from statistics on record inflation in the world. Given the high Consumer Price Index in the US, which reached 8.5% in March, as well as the growing geopolitical uncertainty against the backdrop of the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and severe anti-COVID restrictions in China, the demand for defensive assets remains elevated.

Macroeconomic statistics released the day before showed an increase in annual consumer inflation in the US to 8.5%, which was a new record high for 41 years. At the same time, a sharp tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected in May: in addition to the expected rate hike by 50 basis points at once, a quantitative tightening program may also be launched to correct its balance.

Additional support for the metal comes from the prospect of a gradual lifting of COVID restrictions in China, while the restoration of industrial activity. The Chinese authorities announced the easing of a number of quarantine measures in parts of Shanghai, which will affect almost 5 million people, since there were no new cases of coronavirus infection over the past two weeks. Silver, unlike gold, is more actively used in industry, and therefore reacts sharply to such factors.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains practically unchanged, limiting the development of 'bullish' dynamics in the short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 25.58, 26, 26.27, 26.57 | Support levels: 25.35, 25, 24.67, 24.42

Gold, Exchange-traded fund continue to buy gold

XAUUSD is correcting upwards at 1973. Yesterday, the World Gold Council (WGC) published a report on the state of the market in Q1 2022, which noted a clear positive momentum for the price of the precious metal.

According to the published report, the main influence on the quotes was the increased demand from ETF funds and private investors. In particular, the volume of gold held by ETF funds increased by 269 tons in the quarter alone compared to data at the end of 2021, which is the most dynamic increase since 2020. In addition, the US Mint noted the increased interest of market participants in bullion gold coins in Q1 2022, with total sales of 518K troy ounces, showing a record pace since 1999.

High demand for contracts is also confirmed by data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to last week's report, the number of net speculative positions in gold was 245.5K, well above the average of 200K at the end of January this year.

In addition, investors continue to evaluate data on March inflation in the United States, which reflected an increase in consumer prices by 8.5% in annual terms, which is the highest value since December 1981. At the same time, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, slowed down somewhat compared to the February level. Now the market is waiting for decisive steps from the US Federal Reserve. In particular, the interest rate is expected to be raised by 50 basis points at once at the meeting in May.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the global rising channel, being near the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator again began to expand the range of fluctuations in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved into the buy zone, forming the first bar above the transition level.

Support levels: 1958, 1915 | Resistance levels: 1983, 2050

AUDUSD, the instrument ends the week in the 'red' zone
 
AUDUSD shows a moderate decline during the Asian session, testing 0.74 for a breakdown. The instrument is preparing to finish yet another trading week in the 'red' zone; however, due to the active growth of the Australian currency last Tuesday, the total losses can be characterized as insignificant.

In addition to the rising US dollar, quotes are under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published the day before. Employment Change in March was recorded at around 17.9K, which was below market expectations at the level of 40K and significantly inferior to 77.4K shown in February. At the same time, Full-Time Employment decreased from 121.9K to 20.5K, while the dynamics of Part-Time Employment improved from -44.5K to -2.7K. The Unemployment Rate remained at 4%, while many experts were confident that it would stay below this psychological level. At the same time, Consumer Inflation Expectations rose from 4.9% to 5.2% in April, while analysts had projected a decline to 4.6%.

Investors continue to monitor the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The Australian government imposed targeted financial sanctions on 14 Russian state-owned enterprises of strategic and economic importance. In particular, PJSC Gazprom, PJSC Rostelecom, JSC United Shipbuilding Corporation, JSC Ruselectronics, PJSC Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port, PJSC Alrosa, JSC Russian Railways, and others were included in the list.

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moderately declining. The price range expands, making way to new local lows for the 'bears'. MACD is preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having tried to reverse upwards at the beginning of the current week is directed downwards again, indicating the continuing risks of the instrument being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.745, 0.75, 0.755, 0.76 | Support levels: 0.74, 0.7366, 0.73, 0.725

Crude Oil, multidirectional trading dynamics

During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices show multidirectional dynamics, holding close to $103 per barrel.

Yesterday, EU representatives reaffirmed their intention to phase out the import of Russian energy resources, which increased the likelihood of new prohibitive measures being included in the sixth sanctions package. According to the Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France, Clément Beaune, there are currently active discussions on the embargo with partners from the EU, the US, the UK, and Japan. Meanwhile, shipments of Russian oil by sea have already fallen by 25% (3.12M barrels per day). Also, traders evaluate the dynamics of industrial growth rates globally and, in particular, in China, one of the largest importers of petroleum products.

The instrument was supported yesterday by an unexpectedly sharp reduction in US oil reserves. Thus, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week of April 15, the indicator fell by 8.02M barrels after an increase of 9.382M barrels over the previous period. However, analysts expected the positive dynamics to continue at 2.417M barrels. At the same time, US strategic reserves decreased by 4.7M barrels, while production slightly accelerated to 11.9M barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell by 800K barrels, significantly lower than the expected value of 1.2M barrels.

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Bollinger bands are moving flat on the daily chart: the price range remains practically unchanged, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator reversed upwards but keeps its previous sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic practically did not react to the appearance of ambiguous trading dynamics on Wednesday and still signals in favor of developing a downtrend in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 103, 105, 107.67, 110 | Support levels: 101.37, 100, 98, 96

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After reaching local highs of around 26 dollars per ounce, the quotes of the trading instrument show a local sideways trend and are now around 25.05.

The XAGUSD pair is preparing to continue growing against the backdrop of a positive report from the Silver Institute on the state of the precious metal market and experts' forecasts for the current year. Thus, in 2021, global industrial demand amounted to 508.2M ounces, adding 9% to the value of the previous year, while silver bullion sales increased immediately by 36% to 278.7M ounces, the highest figure in the last seven years, and total demand for the year increased 19% to 1.05B ounces.

As for the forecast for 2022, analysts expect continued positive dynamics and investor interest in the assets of the metal group. Industrial demand for silver is estimated to increase by 6% to 539.6 M ounces, while overall supply could rise by 3% to 1.03B ounces. In general, the overall forecast for the year is positive, and according to the specialists of the Silver Institute, the deficit in the world market will be about 70M ounces.

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The price moves within the global ascending corridor, declining after reaching the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal, but their readings work out a local correction: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 26, 27.4 | Support levels: 24.55, 23.1

AUDUSD, the pair is developing a strong downtrend

The Australian dollar shows a steady decline during the morning session, updating local lows from February 28. The instrument has been developing a downtrend since last Thursday, when the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell once again announced the need to raise interest rates by 0.50% at once at the May meeting. In addition, the regulator may launch a quantitative tightening program, which its representatives have also often spoken about recently. Investors took the official's speech as an additional signal to reduce risky positions, which provoked a noticeable strengthening of the US currency.

The macroeconomic statistics released on Friday from Australia failed to slow down the development of the 'bearish' dynamics for the instrument, despite the fact that the data turned out to be quite positive in general. The Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI in April rose from 57.7 to 57.9 points, while analysts had expected growth to only 57.8 points. The Services PMI for the same period strengthened from 55.6 to 56.6 points, but the market expected a much more noticeable increase to 58.5 points. At the same time, the Composite PMI rose from 55.1 to 56.2 in April.



In addition, China recorded the highest daily death rate of the population from COVID-19 this year, and the record for the incidence in Shanghai was 21K people. The city authorities announced a new round of quarantine measures last week, including daily testing of citizens for coronavirus. China remains one of the few countries that have adopted a 'zero tolerance' policy, imposing mandatory quarantine for those who come into contact with infected citizens in order to contain the spread of the disease.



Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, but at the moment it is not keeping up with the surge of 'bearish' sentiment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains a steady downtrend but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold AUD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.72, 0.725, 0.73, 0.7341 | Support levels: 0.715, 0.71, 0.705, 0.7

USDCHF, trading near record highs

During the Asian session, the USDCHF pair is actively growing, testing the level of 0.9580 for a breakout and holding near the record highs of June 2020, renewed at the end of last week after the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

The regulator chairman confirmed his intention to start an aggressive adjustment of the monetary policy parameters and raise the interest rate by 50 basis points at the next meeting in May to combat the inflation rate, which has been a record for 40 years. Also, the agency is likely to launch a quantitative easing program, which will allow it to reduce its balance sheet, which currently stands at about 9T dollars, mainly consisting of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

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Against the backdrop of rising buying sentiment, the US currency ignored the national macroeconomic data on Friday. The PMI Markit index in the manufacturing sector in April rose from 58.8 to 59.7 points, while analysts expected a slight decline to 58.2 points. In turn, the business activity index in the service sector for the same period fell from 58 to 54.7 points with neutral market forecasts. The composite business activity index corrected from 57.7 to 55.1 points, which was noticeably worse than analysts' expectations of 58.1 points.



On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily growing: the price range is expanding, letting the 'bulls' renew the highs. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic also maintains an upward direction but is near its highs, signaling that the dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.96, 0.965, 0.97, 0.975 | Support levels: 0.9535, 0.95, 0.9459, 0.94

Crude Oil, 'black gold' quotes remain under pressure

Brent Crude Oil prices show a slight corrective growth, recovering from the 'bearish' start of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows from April 12. Analysts attribute the current increase in quotes to technical factors, while the general news background still exerts moderate pressure on oil.

First of all, traders are concerned about the risks of lower demand for energy in China. The authorities are reporting an outbreak in Beijing, which again threatens a large-scale lockdown that will affect millions of people and lead to a marked reduction in industrial production. In the capital, 22 non-imported cases of COVID-19 were detected the day before, as a result of which a number of gyms and children's clubs suspended work. China remains one of the few countries that have adopted a 'zero tolerance' policy, imposing mandatory quarantine for those who come into contact with infected citizens in order to contain the spread of the disease.

The growing US dollar, which is actively in demand as a safe haven, also has a negative effect on oil. Today, traders will focus on the data on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders. Analysts' current forecasts are quite optimistic and suggest a 1% increase in March volumes after a 2.1% decline a month earlier. Also during the day, the weekly report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of stocks for the week ended April 22 is going to be released. The previous publication reflected a sharp decline in the rate of 4.496 million barrels.



Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is almost unchanged, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down, demonstrating a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps a downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 104, 106, 109, 112 | Support levels: 100, 96.5, 93.34, 90

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Quotes of USDJPY fell to a weekly low the day before, but today the yen is trying to regain its positions, despite the fact that the observed correction is largely associated with a slowdown in the growth of the US currency. Now the instrument is trading around 127.7.

Macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be positive and supported the quotes of the national currency. The Unemployment Rate in the country in March fell to 2.6% from 2.7% a month earlier, despite the fact that analysts did not expect changes in the indicator. In turn, the Jobs / Applicants Ratio rose to 1.22 from the February value of 1.21, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. Also noteworthy is the Core CPI from the Bank of Japan, which stood at 1.1% in March, slightly up from 1.0% in the previous month. Investors are waiting for the results of the meeting of the Japanese monetary policy regulator, which will be held tomorrow. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has already called for keeping the current monetary policy parameters and not raising interest rates to prevent a rapid fall in the yen.

In turn, the US dollar is holding at its highs, having exceeded the level of 102.000 in the USD Index the day before against the backdrop of disappointing data on the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April, which fell to 107.3 points, despite preliminary estimates of 108.0 points. In addition, New Home Sales also corrected downward in March from 835K to 763K.

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The instrument is trading in a global uptrend, correcting within the local Flag pattern. Technical indicators hold a steady buy signal, which is working out a slight correction: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is high in the purchase zone.

Support levels: 126.94, 123.77 | Resistance levels: 128.96, 133

EURUSD, 2020 low's update

Today, the EURUSD pair renewed the 2020 low at 1.065, falling under the pressure of escalating the military conflict in Ukraine.

The decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to sell natural gas to 'unfriendly' countries for rubles is forcing European officials to refuse supplies and look for an alternative, more expensive options, which leads to inflation rising to a record high of 7.4% YoY. Analysts suggest that the negative trend will continue, and in April, the figure will reach 7.5%. Also, German Economic Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that the country can now stop importing Russian oil, and Poland is ready to help it search for new suppliers, which has already indicated its position on refusing to renew existing contracts. Authorities hope to find alternatives in the coming days, the official said.

Against the backdrop of high inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) is forced to adjust the current parameters of monetary policy. There are no official statements about the upcoming interest rate hike, however, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, the regulator may adjust the rate by 25 basis points in July, and by 2023 the value will reach 1.25%. If ECB officials confirm this information, we can expect the EUR/USD pair to strengthen, and until then, the instrument is waiting for trading in a downtrend.

The US dollar is rising ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 4th. It is expected that it will rise by 0.5% to 1%, which will help fight against high inflation.

The long-term trend is downward. Today, the asset has reached the support level of 1.0650, and after its breakdown, it may drop to 1.05, 1.035.



As part of the medium-term downtrend, the price reached the target zone 3 (1.0608 - 1.0589), after the breakdown of which the fall will continue with the target around ​​zone 4 (1.0416 - 1.0397). Otherwise, we can expect a correction to the area of ​​the key trend resistance 1.0799 - 1.078.

Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.117 | Support levels: 1.065, 1.05

Quotes of EUR/USD are trading at the lowest levels since 2017 around 1.0520. The downtrend in the asset is intensifying against the backdrop of the negative impact of the possible consequences of the previously adopted anti-Russian sanctions, and, in particular, the ban on the import of raw materials and fertilizers. After the refusal of countries 'unfriendly' to Russia to adhere to the new scheme of paying for energy resources in rubles, the PJSC Gazprom announced the termination of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Meanwhile, the German authorities showed solidarity on the issue of a complete ban on the purchase of Russian fuel, noting the need for a gradual transition to the use of alternative sources. Thus, the country withdrew its objections to a complete embargo on the supply of 'black gold' from the Russian Federation and joined the rest of the EU members in this matter.



In the meantime, inflationary pressures in Germany and in the euro area as a whole continue to grow, which is reflected in macroeconomic indicators. German Consumer Price Index in April year on year reached 7.4% for the first time since 1974, rising from 7.3% a month earlier and yielding to analysts' forecast at 7.2%, while Italian Consumer Confidence Index corrected to 100.0 points from 100.8 points. The Consumer Price Index in Spain showed a downtrend and reached 8.4% after 9.8% shown in the previous period; however, despite the decline in inflation, Unemployment Rate in the country is fixed at a high level: 13.65% against 13.33%, shown in March.



In turn, the US currency could not ignore the negative fundamental background and came under pressure from weak data on the labor market, after which it began a downward correction, dropping from 103.700 to 103.400 in the USD Index. Thus, according to statistics, the Continuing Jobless Claims amounted to 1.408 million, exceeding the projected 1.403 million. Another increase in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures index should also be noted: the value in Q1 increased to 5.20% from 5.00%.



The instrument is trading below the support line of the wide descending channel, which the price crossed the day before. Technical indicators maintain the global sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator continues to decline in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 1.0470, 1.0170 | Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.1170