EUR/USD

The single currency rose sharply against the US dollar on Tuesday after Janet Yellen declared that the US central bank should be careful in the coming increases in interest rates in the country.

On Wednesday, the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans supported the position of the head of the US central bank's Janet Yellen and suggested that a raise of the rate at the April meeting is less possible.
In an interview with CNBC Chicago Fed president added that he would be surprised if all the conditions for the raise of the rate will be executed until the next meeting in April, although he noted that the rise could happen in June, when the labor market will continue to strengthen.

The EURUSD could find resistance at the 1.1400 and support at the 1.1200 level. Lets see how the US fundamentals keep affecting the pair.

EUR/USD continued the bullish momentum yesterday and made a high at 1.1364. The outlook remains bullish especially if we see a clear break above 1.1375, to test 1.1450-1.1500 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.1280.

Yesterday EURUSD rallied but this time with a narrow range and closed in the middle of the daily range, however managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting bullish momentum.

The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.

The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1456, the 2016 high at 1.1376 (resistance), the previous swing high at 1.1342 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1230 (support) and the 50 day moving average at 1.1130.

Pair seem to struggle to surpass the 1.1370 barrier. Been attacking it for over an hour.

stian posted:
Pair seem to struggle to surpass the 1.1370 barrier. Been attacking it for over an hour.

Keep in mind that 1.1375 is the highest point of the last 22 weeks!

1.1386 is the 23-week high
1.1495 is the 30-week high

it is also important to know, that the 20 MA on the monthly chart will meet the current price at near 1.1410
This may cause a major pull-back, especially because the monthly chart is in congestion with currently 13 bars.

PERPETUUMMOBILE posted:

stian posted:
Pair seem to struggle to surpass the 1.1370 barrier. Been attacking it for over an hour.

Keep in mind that 1.1375 is the highest point of the last 22 weeks!

And now it punched through at 1.1383,

As I have mentioned, prices advanced to 1.1410 and then got pushed back because of the event described above. This is often a good spot for short-term traders to place a limit/sell order.
Tomorrow, a new bar will start on the monthly chart and the trend situation may change for a while.

One easy way to spot a consolidation or congestion is, when bars have alternating opens and closes.
Usually there are one or two bars that have the open lower than the close (uptrend within the bar) followed by one or two bars where the open and close position is in the opposite direction / open price is higher than the close price = down trend within the bar.
This can be observed in any chart time frame.
Sometimes in a congestion (bar 11 to bar 21 with a measuring bar) there are 3 bars in the same trend, followed by a reversal bar.
These reversal bars can be traded in the direction of the reversal bar.
If the reversal bar has its open higher then its close price, then sell 1 pip below the low of the reversal bar.
If the situation is in the opposite direction, buy at the high of the reversal bar (ask price!) + 1 pip.

I think the pair will likely continue climbing towards 1.1400, perhaps even 1.1500, but on the other hand the NFP will be announced tomorrow and that might change things.

The EUR/USD made a high today at 1.1411, exactly where resistance is. The pair is now trading around 1.1380. If 1.1410 is not taken out by tomorrow there is a chance that bears might be able to bring the Euro down and go below 1.13.

Likely it will be a bit of a risk-off and cashing in on dollar shorts, because of the NFP, ISM and unemployment+PMI for the eurozone. Had it been another week I would suspect a rally towards 1.1450. Tomorrow can bring big movements.

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.1365. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.1375 testing 1.1450 – 1.1500 region which is a good place to sell. Immediate support is seen around 1.1280.visit my profile for more details. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1200 area. My major technical outlook remains neutral.

Short EURUSD

The euro recorded fourth consecutive successful session against the dollar on Thursday. The single currency continued the positive momentum that started earlier in the week and as a result broke the resistance at 1.1376. If bulls continue to prevail, the pair might break the key level at 1.1439.

Yesterday EURUSD rallied again but this time with a wide range and closed near the high of the day, in addition managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.

The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.

Today is a BIG day, non-farm payrolls day which will bring a lot of volatility to the market however we might see a strong pullback due to the strong rally from these past few days.

The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1555, other daily resistance at 1.1456, the previous swing high at 1.1342 (support), the 10-day moving average at 1.1248 (support), and daily support at 1.1237.

Euro's intra-day rebound fm Asian low at 1.1367 suggests pullback fm y'day's fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.1412 (NY) has ended there n consolidation with upside bias wud be seen, abv 1.1394 res wud confirm n bring re-test of 1.1412, then 1.1431 later.

Summary :
Target Level : 1.1329
Target Period : 19 hours

Analysis :
Rising Wedge has broken through the support line at 01-Apr-00:00 2016 GMT-2. Possible bearish price movement forecast for the next 19 hours towards 1.133.visit my profile to get profitable signals.

Supporting Indicators :
RSI above 60

Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.1412Last resistance turning point of Rising Wedge.

Support Levels
( A ) 1.1309Last support turning point of Rising Wedge.