Oil Weakness Pressures CAD; Traders Eye Powell, PMI Data | 23rd September 2025

Oil & PMI Focus

Global markets opened Tuesday with a cautious tone, as commodity-linked currencies and oil prices came under pressure while traders looked ahead to key economic cues. WTI crude extended its decline below $63.50 on persistent oversupply worries, keeping the Canadian Dollar supported near 1.3850. In Asia, the PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate slightly firmer, while the New Zealand Dollar edged higher above 0.5850 ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech and US PMI data. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar struggled after weaker September PMI figures highlighted ongoing softness in domestic activity.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude trades below $63.50, extending its decline on persistent oversupply concerns. Markets are weighing a softer demand outlook against sporadic geopolitical risks, leaving sentiment tilted toward the downside.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Tensions provide occasional support, but without major supply disruptions.

US Economic Data: Weak PMI or growth signals reinforce demand concerns; resilience could cushion losses.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish tone may soften the USD and indirectly support oil, but fundamentals dominate.

Trade Policy: Lack of new trade measures keeps demand sentiment subdued.

Monetary Policy: Global easing remains supportive for growth but insufficient to offset current surplus pressures.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish, extending declines.

Resistance: $64.20 → $65.00.

Support: $63.00 → $62.00.

Forecast: Risk biased lower toward $62.00 unless supply cuts or stronger demand signals emerge.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish as oversupply headlines outweigh geopolitical risks.

Catalysts: API/EIA stock reports, OPEC+ guidance, China demand data, US PMI releases.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

SD/CAD is holding near 1.3850, supported by lower oil prices which weigh on the Canadian Dollar. Dollar demand remains underpinned by cautious risk tone and stable yields.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Mild impact via oil markets; CAD sensitive to energy headlines.

US Economic Data: Stronger US PMI would reinforce USD strength; softer data may cap gains.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish bias from Fed could eventually weaken USD, but current carry supports.

Trade Policy: No immediate headlines, though global trade softness pressures CAD through oil demand.

Monetary Policy: BoC policy divergence with the Fed remains a medium-term theme but secondary today.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Consolidation with bullish bias.

Resistance: 1.3880 → 1.3920.

Support: 1.3820 → 1.3780.

Forecast: Likely to stay supported above 1.3800 as long as oil remains weak.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish USD/CAD, with CAD underperforming on oil weakness.

Catalysts: US PMI, Powell speech, Canadian macro updates, oil supply/demand headlines.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1057, slightly stronger than the prior 7.1106, signaling controlled stability despite global USD strength.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Minimal direct impact; mostly trade-linked risk.

US Economic Data: Stronger data supports USD and keeps pressure on CNY.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish tilt could ease some upward pressure on USD/CNY.

Trade Policy: Ongoing US-China trade frictions remain a medium-term risk factor.

Monetary Policy: PBOC continues calibrated easing, aiming to stabilize growth while limiting CNY volatility.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Sideways, with controlled depreciation bias.

Resistance: 7.1150 → 7.1250.

Support: 7.1000 → 7.0950.

Forecast: Stable within narrow band as PBOC anchors expectations.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Managed stability — PBOC guidance keeps traders cautious.

Catalysts: US PMI, Fed commentary, PBOC liquidity measures, trade developments.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD trades above 0.5850, posting modest gains as traders await Powell’s speech and key US PMI data. The Kiwi finds mild support from risk tone and a softer USD.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Minimal impact; global risk sentiment indirectly affects NZD.

US Economic Data: PMI and Powell’s remarks are pivotal for near-term USD direction.

FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed could unlock further upside for NZD.

Trade Policy: Background risk from China-related trade flows continues.

Monetary Policy: RBNZ stance remains steady; Fed trajectory dominates short-term moves. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish short term.

Resistance: 0.5880 → 0.5920.

Support: 0.5820 → 0.5800.

Forecast: Likely rangebound ahead of Powell/PMI but bias shifts higher on dovish Fed signals.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism, with traders awaiting US cues.

Catalysts: Powell’s speech, US PMI, China growth signals.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar remains subdued, holding losses after September Composite PMI fell, signaling weaker economic activity. This weighs on sentiment despite a broadly softer USD backdrop.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited impact; China demand outlook more relevant for AUD.

US Economic Data: Strong PMI could push AUD/USD lower; weak data offers relief.

FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed provides some upside cushion for AUD.

Trade Policy: Australia-China trade dynamics remain a structural factor.

Monetary Policy: RBA seen cautious, with weaker PMI reinforcing a measured approach. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish-to-neutral.

Resistance: 0.6500 → 0.6540.

Support: 0.6430 → 0.6400.

Forecast: Bias remains tilted lower unless US data disappoints or China demand improves.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish — PMI weakness reinforces downside pressure.

Catalysts: US PMI, Fed commentary, China demand indicators, RBA remarks.

Wrap-up

Overall, markets remain sensitive to oil dynamics, central bank guidance, and incoming PMI releases. With Powell’s remarks and US economic data due later, volatility across FX and commodities could pick up, leaving traders focused on how growth and monetary policy narratives shape near-term moves.

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