Forex Growth Bot การสนทนา

Hi Tucotrader,

FGB does tend to trade at what might often seem to be daily extremes. The reason for the DD now is the same that caused the even larger DD in July last year, namely large 15/30 minute moves followed by equally large sudden retraces, this happening not just once but several times over. If you look at the market, such patterns rarely last, otherwise you are asking the euro to continue to bounce violently in a defined range which in my view is a difficult thing for any currency pair to sustain. I don't see this bouncing happening for that much longer, irrespective of whether volatility is high or low. Sounds like you think that this bouncing price action can continue which is perfectly reasonable (although maybe harder to argue?). All the same I do prefer this as an opportunity to trade, rather than an opportunity to make analogies with casinos. I never like comparing price action in a traded market with roulette.

Regards
Daniel

is high or low, but that's a trading decision. Sounds like you think that bouncing price action can continue which is perfectly reasonable. But I do prefer to view this as an opportunity to trade, rather than an opportunity to make analogies with casinos. I never like comparing price action in a traded market with roulette.

Regards
Daniel

I have tested this bot with historical quotes and never has had this horrible performance. What might be happening? I did a backtest of 10 years with very good results.. The logical question is ...during those 10 years never has happened the market conditions like we have this few last weeks? This market behavior is a new thing? The worse of all of this, is that this last behavior of the bot, shows to us that never we can trust in a full automatic bot, because an EA must be feeded with some data that only an experienced trader can realize by looking in the market.

The problem is not the bad streak, because every strategy has its own good and bad streaks. There is no such thing as a strategy without bad streaks, because that would be our dear and famous holy grail.

The problem is that, one year ago, the equity level was the same that now, but the lot size for every entry was 0.15 lots. However, today the lot size by entry is 0.25, exactly the same that was at the highest equity just one month ago. So, the problem right now it´s just a matter of bad money management application.

The DD is not the biggest one. Last year July it was worse. We cannot say that is a problem of a bad MM. We will see in one month.
Bad news would be welcome :-)

What sekatsimorez seems to point is that any money management strategy that does not reduce risk as the DD grows is pretty dangerous. That means, essentialy, that this bot is taking more and more relative risk, which could lead to some nasty periods (or prodigious, but misleading, comebacks). If FGB keeps trading same lotsize than when we were at equity highs, it's not rocket science to understand that the equity wipeout will follow an exponential curve. I do agree with him.

Sekatsimorez is not saying that the reason for this DD is a problem of money management, but that this is a dangerous approach itself, notwithstanding the current market conditions or whatever other reasons that have led the bot to deepen this DD stage.

if you want to save your money; better drop this EA. Having three consecutive negative months is a sure indicator of the strategy death.

RobinVol is doing south too.

1) We're on the 7th of May. Unless something changed and nobody told me, May has 31 days.
2) In backtests, FGB has three consecutive losing months on seven occasions.

1999 * 2
2000 * 2
2001 * 1
2002 * 1
2007 * 1

And on several occasions loses for 2 months in a row ( which is what it currently has done ).

If you want to save your money, three words. Research, research, research.

Best regards Steve

May is -23% already; so am not sure we can recover from that

The big question is not how many consecutive losing months FGB has been before.

The big question is how many consecutive losing months FGC can stand without adapting its lot size.

Anyway, if lot size is not adjusted during bad days by the trader, then lot size will be self adjusted to zero the last day by the broker.

you will definitely not recover if you stop it now.

: Steve Boardman - so it was not looking in the analysis

scalptastic posted:
May is -23% already; so am not sure we can recover from that

Unlikely I'll admit, but it's possible and that doesn't make point 2 any less valid.

peti1963 posted:
: Steve Boardman - so it was not looking in the analysis

Not sure what this means, please elaborate.

This extreme volatility is making havocs in my account !!
I am soon to disable this bot. for never more using it again !!!!

And then look for a new one... to disable it... to look for a new one... to disable it, too... too look for...

It's easy to understand: there is no bot that will work forever. As simple as that.

Returns of thousands of % in two years only hide big risks. There is not free meal in this business, children. You pay sooner or later. In this case, it's obvious that this aggresive money management policy allows you to 'recover' soon these big losses. Fair enough. But it also opens up the risk of a burnt account once the conditions are met. A risk larger than what you may expect at a first glance.

There is a thing called cost of opportunity and risk-free rate of return. Markets defend themselves to be exploited massively by not allowing consistent returns above a reasonable level, not too far away from that rate. Go and check Barclay Hedge CTA Index for notions about where are those levels. And no, to stay on this business for a long time you cannot expect yearly compounded returns above 20% consistently.

For those lazy boys: https://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/cta/sub/cta.html

I have discontinued machine and wait for better times :(

shoot the strategy foot before it shoots your foot 😎😀

elizo, wise words, thank you

peti1963 posted:
I have discontinued machine and wait for better times :(

i'd say ,it's time to get in cause dd is coming to an end and big profit will follow...