FXCharger การสนทนา

Drolph posted:

LongVision posted:
I don't know why Martingale Money Management is so popular in forex. There are other better Money Management Strategy such as Kelly Criterion exist. As per kelly Criterion your risk increase in the following case only-

1. Higher the winrate higher the risk per trade.
2. Higher the Reward/Risk ratio higher the risk per trade.

I am here sharing the backtest where risk is 50% of the kelly Criterion.No Grid, No Martingale and No average of an existing position



It is possible to earn money with simple MM without crash your accout.

Well, the answer is given in my last post. Please read carefully.

Drolph posted:
A standard trading system with fixed SL and TP and positive risk/reward on each and every trade will have time periods where your balance will decrease constantly and you never know when the situation changes again. Something not everyone wants to live with, having several consecutive months losing money. Here, averaging provides an undisputable advantage.

And now we have a look at your backtest example once again. There is a huge timespan (roughly but at least more than a full year), where you would suffer from a continous decreasing account balance. Looks easy to overcome in theory, but trust me you would not let a strategy run for 1-2 years without visible gains. You would start to fiddle around with the settings and get caught in the curve fitting trap!

Nobody said that martingale or averaging is the jack of all trades solution. It is not. But until now your examples only undermine the benefits of averaging techniques.

There is no risk free easy jack of all trades solution in this business. All approaches got two sides of the medal. Everyone has to choose what comforts him most. But to fully understand this, you need many years of experience.

But maybe you can solve this problem with a few changes, time and energy again. ;)

3165 posted:
Your backtest is very poor.
Only 168 trades from 2004.
And not only this but above 40% drawdown. This is just a big NO.
I would never consider that a professional backtest.

LongVision posted:
Ok that was just an example. If you use multiple strategies on multiple timeframe & Multiple market then stagnation period can be easily reduce from 1-2 years to few months only. You may have different approach to market. My approach is that I trade only strategy which is profitable on multiple pairs not only on single pair. I am already giving my time and energy on that and getting positive results. May be Martingale MM suit your trading style. Good luck for your trading.

Thanks.

3165 posted:
1. Upload different results to show your profit on each pair each TF.
2. MT5 is the solution for you. You can run BT in multiple pairs simultaneously.

LongVision posted:

Drolph posted:

LongVision posted:
I don't know why Martingale Money Management is so popular in forex. There are other better Money Management Strategy such as Kelly Criterion exist. As per kelly Criterion your risk increase in the following case only-

1. Higher the winrate higher the risk per trade.
2. Higher the Reward/Risk ratio higher the risk per trade.

I am here sharing the backtest where risk is 50% of the kelly Criterion.No Grid, No Martingale and No average of an existing position



It is possible to earn money with simple MM without crash your accout.

Well, the answer is given in my last post. Please read carefully.

Drolph posted:
A standard trading system with fixed SL and TP and positive risk/reward on each and every trade will have time periods where your balance will decrease constantly and you never know when the situation changes again. Something not everyone wants to live with, having several consecutive months losing money. Here, averaging provides an undisputable advantage.

And now we have a look at your backtest example once again. There is a huge timespan (roughly but at least more than a full year), where you would suffer from a continous decreasing account balance. Looks easy to overcome in theory, but trust me you would not let a strategy run for 1-2 years without visible gains. You would start to fiddle around with the settings and get caught in the curve fitting trap!

Nobody said that martingale or averaging is the jack of all trades solution. It is not. But until now your examples only undermine the benefits of averaging techniques.

There is no risk free easy jack of all trades solution in this business. All approaches got two sides of the medal. Everyone has to choose what comforts him most. But to fully understand this, you need many years of experience.

But maybe you can solve this problem with a few changes, time and energy again. ;)

Ok that was just an example. If you use multiple strategies on multiple timeframe & Multiple market then stagnation period can be easily reduce from 1-2 years to few months only. You may have different approach to market. My approach is that I trade only strategy which is profitable on multiple pairs not only on single pair. I am already giving my time and energy on that and getting positive results. May be Martingale MM suit your trading style. Good luck for your trading.

Thanks.

togr posted:
Well multi currency system ounds great but it has its own flaws.
Like if you got stagnation on one pair and than on another :)

Drolph posted:

togr posted:
Well multi currency system ounds great but it has its own flaws.
Like if you got stagnation on one pair and than on another :)

Or you got them on mutliple pairs simultaneously, adding each others drawdown to horrendous values. 😉

LongVision posted:

Drolph posted:

togr posted:
Well multi currency system ounds great but it has its own flaws.
Like if you got stagnation on one pair and than on another :)

Or you got them on mutliple pairs simultaneously, adding each others drawdown to horrendous values. 😉

That is a vaild question. I already taken this in the consideration. Correlation between pair should also consider when trading on multicurrency strategy. For example USDCAD & EURUSD have common currency USD so any strategy may have 50% correlation. So I reduced the risk by 50% when I will deploy any strategy. But in case of EURCAD and AUDUSD I will not reduce any risk as these pairs are uncorrelated to each other.

This is why trading is not easy you have to consider multiple things when trading.

Thanks

Drolph posted:

LongVision posted:

Drolph posted:

togr posted:
Well multi currency system ounds great but it has its own flaws.
Like if you got stagnation on one pair and than on another :)

Or you got them on mutliple pairs simultaneously, adding each others drawdown to horrendous values. 😉

That is a vaild question. I already taken this in the consideration. Correlation between pair should also consider when trading on multicurrency strategy. For example USDCAD & EURUSD have common currency USD so any strategy may have 50% correlation. So I reduced the risk by 50% when I will deploy any strategy. But in case of EURCAD and AUDUSD I will not reduce any risk as these pairs are uncorrelated to each other.

This is why trading is not easy you have to consider multiple things when trading.

Thanks

Sounds again logical. But I have seen uncorrelated pairs producing negative results in parallel for the same strategy more than often. All these theoretical aspects sound smart, but trust me - market is smarter.

It is the same thing like analyzing market sessions, where 'usually' the asian session got the lowest range on average and all these night scalpers seemed to be the holy grail. Nowadays you have crazy moves during asian session more than often while trading during London session is mostly calm in comparison.

You are trying to get a peace of mind situation with these theoretical preparations. But it is no 'advantage'. Sorry.

togr posted:
Not updated since June
Who knows what is the DD now?

---

ไฟล์แนบ :

Open in a full screen

ปิด

HolyaHola posted:

LongVision posted:

Drolph posted:

LongVision posted:

Drolph posted:

togr posted:
Well multi currency system ounds great but it has its own flaws.
Like if you got stagnation on one pair and than on another :)

Or you got them on mutliple pairs simultaneously, adding each others drawdown to horrendous values. 😉

That is a vaild question. I already taken this in the consideration. Correlation between pair should also consider when trading on multicurrency strategy. For example USDCAD & EURUSD have common currency USD so any strategy may have 50% correlation. So I reduced the risk by 50% when I will deploy any strategy. But in case of EURCAD and AUDUSD I will not reduce any risk as these pairs are uncorrelated to each other.

This is why trading is not easy you have to consider multiple things when trading.

Thanks

Sounds again logical. But I have seen uncorrelated pairs producing negative results in parallel for the same strategy more than often. All these theoretical aspects sound smart, but trust me - market is smarter.

It is the same thing like analyzing market sessions, where 'usually' the asian session got the lowest range on average and all these night scalpers seemed to be the holy grail. Nowadays you have crazy moves during asian session more than often while trading during London session is mostly calm in comparison.

You are trying to get a peace of mind situation with these theoretical preparations. But it is no 'advantage'. Sorry.

I live trading these strategies since 2017 in forex with positive result. There is always some kind of correlation exist between different pairs. What I can control only risk on individual trades only.How strategies will be performed on future data there is no guarantee but only probability.
As a algo trader result of individual or few trades does not matter. The trading system decides which trades to make, regardless of current conditions.

How long have you been preparing this speech?

Judging by the second trade here,

you don't even know what correlation is and how to use it.

Most importantly, you don't see the trend

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/LongVision/tat-system/3575530

The best thing you can do
write a lot, and without meaning

marco_mmbiz posted:

togr posted:
Not updated since June
Who knows what is the DD now?

There you go: