The Impact of Weaker-Than-Expected CPI on Forex Trading

This week, the much-anticipated CPI (Consumer Price Index) release brought unexpected results, reshaping market dynamics and altering trading perspectives.
ACY Securities | 706 วันที่ผ่านมา

This week, the much-anticipated CPI (Consumer Price Index) release brought unexpected results, reshaping market dynamics and altering trading perspectives.

Let's break down the data from the October CPI report, which was released at 12:30 AM Australian time. The month-to-month CPI consensus was set at 0.1%, with a previous figure of 0.4%. Surprisingly, the actual data came in at zero, indicating no inflation in the US for the month of October. The year-over-year CPI had a consensus of 3.3%, slightly higher than the actual figure of 3.2%.

The Core CPI, measuring inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices, had a consensus of 0.3% but reported 0.2%. The year-over-year Core CPI had a consensus of 4.1% and came in at 4%. Overall, the actual figures were 0.1% lower than the consensus across the board.

The unexpected CPI results prompted a significant drop in US dollar strength. As a market analyst, this has led to a reconsideration of my views on the US dollar's future trajectory. While further data is needed to confirm this shift, early signs suggest that the expected strengthening of the US dollar may not materialize as quickly as anticipated.

During my recent webinar, I discussed trading strategies for the CPI release, explaining how to navigate and capitalize on market movements. For those who missed it, the next webinar is scheduled for next Tuesday, with no charges or fees.

One key takeaway from this CPI release is its potential impact on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) decisions. The CME Fed Watch Tool now indicates a more than 99% probability of a pause in the Fed's upcoming meeting on December 13th. This consensus shift aligns with the market's expectation of a pause in the Fed's rate hikes.

In conclusion, the weaker-than-expected CPI has introduced new variables into the market equation. It's crucial for traders to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly. As we move forward, monitoring additional economic indicators, such as job data and PMIs, will be essential to gaining a comprehensive understanding of the market's trajectory.

Stay tuned for more updates throughout the week. Subscribe to our channel, give this video a thumbs up, and share it with fellow traders. Your support is appreciated, and I look forward to continuing this journey with you.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Catch up with the latest news and market analysis here https://acy.com/en/market-news

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

ACY Securities
ประเภท: STP, ECN, Prime of Prime, Pro
กฎระเบียบ: ASIC (Australia), FSCA (South Africa)
read more
EUR/USD Under Downward Pressure

EUR/USD Under Downward Pressure

The euro is facing sustained selling pressure, primarily driven by a robust US dollar. The greenback is being bolstered by rising Treasury yields and fading market expectations for an early start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.
RoboForex | 2 ชม. 45 นาทีที่ผ่านมา
Japanese bulls went to recharge

Japanese bulls went to recharge

For the first time in Japan, a woman has become prime minister. Takaichi’s position (stimulating the economy and lowering interest rates) has led to speculative buying in Japanese stocks
FxPro | 3 ชม. 11 นาทีที่ผ่านมา
ATFX Market Outlook 21st October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 21st October 2025

US equities surged on Monday, with financial and technology shares providing most of the upside. Optimistic quarterly earnings revived risk appetite, while concerns about regional banks’ credit quality eased. The Dow gained 1.12%, the S&P 500 rose 1.07%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.37%. The US Dollar Index edged higher alongside Treasury yields.
ATFX | 3 ชม. 54 นาทีที่ผ่านมา
Dollar advances as markets remain cautious

Dollar advances as markets remain cautious

Dollar extends gains as US equity futures turn slightly lower; Trump’s tariff rhetoric fails to dent investor confidence; Gold retreats after fresh all-time high; oil weakness persists; Yen resumes its underperformance after Takaichi is elected as PM;
XM Group | 4 ชม. 31 นาทีที่ผ่านมา
Dollar Firms as Risk Appetite Improves, Safe Havens Ease | 21st October 2025

Dollar Firms as Risk Appetite Improves, Safe Havens Ease | 21st October 2025

The U.S. Dollar regained ground as easing U.S.–China trade tensions lifted risk appetite, pressuring gold and silver. Oil stayed weak amid oversupply, while the Aussie Dollar slipped with softer commodities. Markets now eye key U.S. inflation data and Fed minutes for cues on future rate direction and global risk sentiment.
Moneta Markets | 6 ชม. 35 นาทีที่ผ่านมา